Prosper, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

509
FXUS64 KFWD 202333
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
633 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
...New Aviation...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above normal temperatures and low storm chances will continue
  through Tuesday.
- A cold front will move through North Texas Tuesday night
  accompanied by increasing rain/storm chances and cooler weather
  Wednesday through Friday.
&&
.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1226 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025/
/This Afternoon through Sunday Night/
Satellite and radar imagery is quieter this afternoon as mid
level ridging exerts a little more influence on North Texas
weather. This will be short lived though as an 80 kt upper jet
noses into North Texas and a weak shortwave spreads ascent into
the Southern Plains later today. This should support at least
widely scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly off to our
northwest, but there is some potential for these storms to become
semi-organized into small clusters and spread southeast within the
northwest flow aloft. We`ll have some low PoPs mainly across our
far northwest late this afternoon and evening with additional
storm chances late tonight into Sunday morning. Right now, we`ll
keep PoPs confined to our north/northwest counties as low level
flow will begin to veer prior to sunrise and may limit a further
southeast push. Modest instability will linger into Sunday morning
though...so we`ll need to monitor this closely through the late
evening as there is at least some low potential for a more robust
cluster of storms to come rolling through in the early morning
hours.
Otherwise, it`ll be warm this afternoon with highs in the low to
mid 90s with similar temps expected on Sunday. The aforementioned
weak shortwave will spread east of the area by late Sunday with
additional storm chances confined mainly near the Red River.
Dunn
&&
.LONG TERM... /Issued 1226 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025/
/Monday through Friday/
Well above normal temperatures will persist across the region
Monday and Tuesday as mid level ridging expands ahead of a
deepening central CONUS trough. Weak warm advection and mid level
ascent within the northwest flow pattern will continue to support
very isolated showers/storms mainly across our far northern
counties both Monday and Tuesday. Better coverage of storms is
expected to remain north across Oklahoma during this time. As a
pronounced shortwave digs across the Central Rockies early
Tuesday, a cold front will spread south through the Plains. This
front will be stronger and will have a push of cooler air behind
it. The front should enter our northwest counties late Tuesday
into Tuesday night with scattered showers and thunderstorms
increasing through the night. While severe weather is generally
not expected, there could be a few strong storms overnight Tuesday
night across the region. The front should clear our area early
Wednesday morning with cooler and drier air moving into the
region. Highs should continue near seasonal norms Wednesday into
next weekend.
Dunn
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00z TAFs/
VFR will prevail through the period. Convection this evening will
remain well northwest of the TAF sites, but this activity may
eventually send an outflow boundary southeastward which could
result in a wind shift early Sunday morning. This is a low-
probability scenario that will not be advertised in the TAFs at
this time. Additional thunderstorm activity is expected to occur
west of the TAF sites Sunday afternoon, and there is a small
chance some of this could impact the D10 airports just beyond the
current valid forecast period. Outside of influences from
thunderstorms, a south wind of 8-12 kts will prevail with some
higher daytime gusts.
-Stalley
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    74  91  74  94  76 /  10  20  10  10  10
Waco                71  92  73  94  74 /   0  10   5   5   5
Paris               69  90  70  91  72 /   5  10  20  30  30
Denton              71  91  72  94  74 /  20  20  20  10  20
McKinney            71  90  73  92  74 /  10  20  10  20  20
Dallas              74  93  74  95  76 /  10  10  10  10  10
Terrell             71  90  71  91  73 /   5  10   5  10  10
Corsicana           72  92  74  94  74 /   0  10   5   5   5
Temple              70  92  72  94  74 /   5  10   0   5   5
Mineral Wells       69  93  71  97  74 /  20  30  10   5  10
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$

NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion