Providence, Louisiana Weather Forecast Discussion

902
FXUS64 KLIX 191728
AFDLIX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
1228 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
...NEW SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1200 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
- Calm/quiet weather expected into the upcoming weekend with
   highs in the low to mid 90s. No excessive heat concerns in the
   forecast with relative humidity values during the afternoon
   remaining low.
- Can`t rule out an isolated shower or storm for
   northern/northeastern areas this afternoon, but coverage will
   be limited.
- Lower-end shower/storm chances return early next week and
   should persist through the workweek. These will likely be more
   routine with scattered daily mainly afternoon/evening
   shower/storm chances as low level moisture gradually increases.
   A cold front looks to try to move through by the end of next
   week lowering relative humidity values on the backside.
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
The region remains under a stagnant and somewhat quasi-zonal flow
aloft with some weak surface ridging over the southeast. This
afternoon, humidity values will drop once again with stronger
surface heating/mixing taking shape. That said, cannot rule out a
rogue shower or storm along the lake/sea breeze boundaries later
this afternoon along and north of I10/12. Any shower or storm
will certainly be the exception rather than the rule, again with
overall limited coverage.
Going into tonight and Saturday, the fairly stagnant upper
pattern will persist. The already lower-end rain chances this
afternoon will quickly decrease after sunset this evening. The
weak surface high pressure will remain over the region on Saturday
and guidance has come in rather dry from a QPF perspective so
went with silent 10s at the very best. The only slight change for
Saturday is maybe daytime temperatures warming a skosh more into
the middle 90s vs lower 90s like today. (Frye)
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
The overall pattern early in the long term doesn`t change much
from the short term. However, going into late Sunday and Monday
there is a bit of a pattern change in terms of surface features
that will help increase POPs a bit each day. As the surface ridge
pulls eastward, expected low level flow to become more onshore
with much better moisture quality slowly streaming northward. This
will help with diurnally driven convection along the lake/sea
breezes and any surface mesoscale boundaries that develop (such as
outflow boundaries). The POPs start low early in the week and
gradually increase going into the middle part of the next week. As
mentioned, the upper level pattern remains rather light and
stagnant at least early on in the period. However, this is looking
to change. The globals all have an upper level trough digging southward
from the Pacific Northwest and Northern Plains. This will send a
cold front through the region late in the period, which will
likely require a bit higher POPs late Wednesday and into at least
early Thursday. Timing is a bit more uncertain, however, strength
of the trough seem to match up quite well among the globals and
respective ensembles. Behind the front expect at least much drier
conditions, if not just slightly cooler during the overnight and
early morning hours. (Frye)
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
VFR conditions this afternoon and into the overnight tonight for
all terminals. Can`t rule out a rogue shower or storm for GPT or
MCB, however, the coverage will be extremely limited. There is a
localized patchy fog signal for MCB and BTR around sunrise
Saturday. Indicated some slight VIS reductions to MVFR levels for
these sites. Otherwise, convection looks even more limited on
Saturday and winds will remain light and variable through the
cycle. (Frye)
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1228 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Surface high pressure and generally light surface winds will
continue through the weekend and into the start of the new
workweek. Overall winds less than 12 kts can be anticipated
through the forecast period. Waves will also be on the lower side
generally less than 4ft at most. That said, convective potential
will gradually increase as low level moisture increases later this
weekend and especially during the new workweek. One should expect
winds and seas to be locally higher in and around convection.
(Frye)
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  92  68  91 /  10   0   0  10
BTR  69  94  70  93 /   0   0   0  10
ASD  68  92  68  91 /  10   0   0  10
MSY  74  94  74  93 /   0   0   0  10
GPT  71  92  70  90 /  10   0   0   0
PQL  68  94  68  91 /  10   0   0   0
&&
.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...RDF
LONG TERM....RDF
AVIATION...RDF
MARINE...RDF

NWS LIX Office Area Forecast Discussion