Providence, Rhode Island Weather Forecast Discussion

491
FXUS61 KBOX 141717
AFDBOX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
117 PM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Some radiational fog possible early this morning, but it shouldn`t
be widespread. Today is dry for most, but some isolated showers are
expected in the afternoon and evening with highs in the lower to mid
70s. We then return to dry weather and temperatures near or just
warmer than average through mid week. With a low chance for showers
for coastal parts of southern New England Wednesday night into
Thursday.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key Messages...
* Dry for most with only some isolated showers expected this
  afternoon and evening.
A weak shortwave moves overhead today providing some meager forcing
which may result in a few pop up showers similar to what we saw on
Saturday. Not expecting much rain out of any of these showers, with
QPF amounts of a hundredth of an inch or so the most likely. Thunder
chances have decreased for Sunday as well. The more widespread
result of the shortwave and plume of decent PWATs will be diurnal
cloudcover. Temperatures top out in the upper 70s to low 80s.
Eventually this moisture is pushed south of the region tonight
meaning clearing skies after sunset. The exception will be the
east/southeast coast of MA and RI/eastern CT where low level flow
turning from the northeast overnight will pull in low level moisture
leading to some low stratus and fog overnight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages...
* Dry and quiet weather.
* Seasonable, if a bit warmer than average temperatures in the 70s
  to low 80s.
The period of overall dry weather continues as surface high pressure
builds over Quebec with mid level ridging overhead. The airmass
overhead is fairly typical for mid September which with the
expected sunshine leads to temperatures once again in the 70s
and low 80s. The coolest spots will be the eastern MA coast
thanks to onshore flow (highs in the low 70s) while the warmest
will be the CT Valley (low 80s).
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Key Messages...
* High pressure brings quiet weather much, if not all of next week.
* Temperatures a bit warmer than average for mid September in the
  upper 70s and even low 80s by late week.
Overall a benign stretch of weather upcoming nearly all of next week
under the influence of a broad mid level ridge and surface high
pressure. This keeps rain chances at bay while allowing temperatures
to creep up into the upper 70s/low 80s. At this point the best shot
at some unsettled weather looks to be mid week (late Wed into Thu)
as a weak surface low system comes up the coast and may pass close
enough to bring some rain chances with it. Ensemble guidance places
the highest odds of wetting rain (60-80%) along the south coast as
expected with significantly less chance further inland.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
18Z Update...
Today: High Confidence.
VFR. Light S to SW winds. Low risk for a few afternoon -SHRA
south of the Mass Pike.
Tonight: High Confidence.
VFR. Light NW to N winds.
Monday: High Confidence.
VFR. NW winds 5-10 kts.
KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
Low risk for a few afternoon -SHRA.
KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.
VCSH through 20z as some brief showers have already popped up
in the area.
Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/...
Tuesday: VFR. Widespread FG.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Widespread
FG.
Wednesday: VFR. Widespread FG, slight chance SHRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible.
Widespread FG, chance SHRA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance SHRA,
widespread FG.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Widespread
FG, slight chance SHRA.
Friday: VFR. Widespread FG.
&&
.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...
Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.
High confidence.
Relatively light winds and seas today. Very low risk for a few
stray showers towards the RI and SE MA coast this afternoon.
High pressure brings quiet weather and seas on Monday.
Outlook /Tuesday through Friday/...
Tuesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Patchy fog. Local visibility
1 to 3 nm.
Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Patchy fog. Local
visibility 1 nm or less.
Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Slight chance of rain
showers, patchy fog. Local visibility 1 nm or less.
Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Chance of rain showers,
patchy fog. Local visibility 1 nm or less.
Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.
Chance of rain showers, patchy fog. Local visibility 1 nm or
less.
Thursday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers, patchy fog.
Local visibility 1 nm or less.
Friday: Winds less than 25 kt. Patchy fog. Local visibility
1 nm or less.
&&
.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...Belk/McMinn
NEAR TERM...McMinn
SHORT TERM...McMinn
LONG TERM...Belk
AVIATION...Dooley/McMinn
MARINE...McMinn

NWS BOX Office Area Forecast Discussion