Purdum, Nebraska Weather Forecast Discussion

541
FXUS63 KLBF 080905
AFDLBF
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service North Platte NE
405 AM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Isolated storm chances today into this evening, mainly along
  and east of Highway 83.
- Areas of smoke will mix down to the surface for areas mainly
  west of Highway 83 today into tonight.
- Elevated fire weather concerns both this afternoon and Tuesday
  afternoon west of Highway 83.
- A warm pattern the rest of this week with some increased
  chance for showers/thunder Wednesday into the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 349 AM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Fire weather concerns increase this afternoon across portions of
western Nebraska, west of Highway 83 in the western Sandhills and
into the Panhandle. A weak surface trough will mix eastward to near
Highway 83 by afternoon, with west to northwest winds behind the
trough advecting drier air into western Nebraska. Humidity values
will fall to between 19-25% as winds gust to around 20 mph, and high
temperatures reaching well into the 80s.
The surface trough will also become a focus for isolated
thunderstorm development near the Highway 83 corridor late this
afternoon. Dew points will continue to slowly increase ahead of the
surface trough as southerly low-level flow continues. By afternoon
lower 60s dew points will combine with heating and steep mid-level
lapse rates...with a narrow corridor of surface based CAPE values
exceeding 2000 J/KG along and east of Highway 83. CAMs are limited
with storm development, but most have an isolated storm or two
materializing. The lack of forcing aloft is likely the limiting
factor in more widespread development. Shear supports some storm
organization, and any storm that develops could linger into the
evening hours across portions of central into north central
Nebraska.
Also of interest will be some smoke reaching down to the surface
west of the surface trough, especially this afternoon into tonight.
West to northwest winds and deep mixing aloft will allow for smoke
to mix downward to the surface. Continued the areas of smoke mention
today into tonight along and west of Highway 83.
Fire weather concerns develop once again west of Highway 83 Tuesday
afternoon. Winds switch around to the southeast and not expecting
humidity to be quite as low as today, but still falling into the
23-28% range during the afternoon hours.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 349 AM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
A pattern shift occurs Wednesday into the weekend. A Long wave
trough will deepen across the western CONUS. Winds aloft will become
southwesterly across our region ahead of this feature. Southerly low-
level flow will persist as leeward troughing deepens across the
western high plains. A continuous stream of modified Gulf air will
move northward across the area. This will limit fire weather
concerns for the most part as lowest humidity values remain in
check. Rain chances will increase some as several weak disturbances
move northeastward across the area within the southwest flow aloft.
The threat for severe weather seems low at this time, with the flow
aloft remaining fairly weak. PWATS do increase some due to
persistent southwest flow aloft and southerly low-level flow. A
localized heavy rain threat could develop, but confidence is not
high at this time. Will have to monitor the timing of the waves
crossing the area and evaluate any potential heavy rainfall or
severe.
Otherwise it will be a warm pattern with highs mostly in the 80s.
Lows will be quite mild as well with the increase moisture/humidity.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to impact far
southwest Nebraska through early Monday morning, with brief MVFR
visibilities possible. Patchy fog also remains possible early
Monday morning across southwest Nebraska, with locally MVFR
visibilities.
Wildfire smoke is then expected to impact areas north of
Interstate 80 Monday afternoon and evening. Confidence in any
MVFR visibilities remains low for now.
Winds remain southerly through Monday afternoon, at 10 to 15kts.
A weak front then begins to push into the Sandhills by Monday
evening, with a wind shift from south to west-northwest
expected.
&&
.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Taylor
LONG TERM...Taylor
AVIATION...Brown

NWS LBF Office Area Forecast Discussion