Ralls, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

256
FXUS64 KLUB 061715
AFDLUB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1215 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1214 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
- Shower and thunderstorm chances linger into Monday.
- Warmth returns Tuesday and beyond.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Shower activity this afternoon is focused on areas to the south of
the forecast area as upper jet energy shifts to the southeast.
Meanwhile, stratus has been holding on tightly this morning, but
some cracks have begun to show as modest low level dry advection
begins working in from the east and as some drier air mixes toward
the surface. Precipitation focus then shifts to the west. Stratus
holding well all the way back to the Pecos River will make
convective initiation east of the Sangres difficult. This in turn
makes early evening storm chances near the New Mexico state line
less likely. Models are then far from having a consensus on the
amount of mountain convection and how much of said convection works
off the mountains on the high plains of northeastern New Mexico. If
that doesn`t play out then there is a chance that a new, weaker
upper jet streak moving over northern New Mexico and nosing into the
Panhandle/South Plains region will work on some mid level
instability overnight tonight with potential for convection
developing late tonight and moving into/developing over the forecast
area into Sunday morning. NBM at bit bullish with its max of 30-40
PoPs given so many uncertainties. Will cut those down for now but
leave the areal extent of precip chances in place. Finally, more
insolation tomorrow will translate to warmer temperatures likely in
line with the warmer end of MOS and NBM, assuming no stratus
development tonight that lingers well into the morning hours.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Late day Sunday into Sunday evening will see the potential for
isolated thunderstorm development near the New Mexico state line in
an axis of low level instability. That instability axis will shift
eastward toward the I-27 corridor Monday. A re-amplifying upper ridge
might keep convection in check that afternoon, but current model
runs suggest the amplification will be a bit slower than previously
anticipated. Thus, a slight chance mention both Sunday and Monday
are justified. Beyond Monday the ridge should reign supreme,
although a sharpening trough over the western CONUS could drive some
convection into the western zones late in the period. That solution
continues to look unlikely, so will continue with a precip-free
forecast with warmer than normal temperatures in the Tuesday through
Saturday time frame.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Clouds are beginning to slightly break up, particularly over KCDS,
however MVFR will likely continue at KPVW and KLBB through mid-
afternoon today. VFR and light winds should persist at all sites
from this evening through the end of the TAF period.
&&
.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...19

NWS LUB Office Area Forecast Discussion