Ramah, Colorado Weather Forecast Discussion

095
FXUS65 KPUB 081731
AFDPUB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
Issued by National Weather Service Denver CO
1131 AM MDT Mon Sep 8 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Relatively dry and warm today, with isolated high-based
  showers and storms possible this afternoon and early evening.
- Slight uptick in activity on Tuesday, scattered storms
  possible.
- Peak of storm coverage Friday (highest chances still over the
  mountains), but then drier again by the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 231 AM MDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Today and Tonight...An upper-level ridge continues to build in
overhead today, which will continue our recent warming and
drying trend. High temperatures will be in the 80s to low-90s
across most of our forecast area, with some of the higher
valleys only making it into the upper-70s. Drier air will
continue moving in, and with westerly winds moving off of the
mountains, chances for strong storms tomorrow are very low.
There should be enough monsoon moisture for some high-based,
weaker convection over the higher terrain, but little
precipitation is expected to make it to the ground. Mainly
looking at gusty outflow winds and lightning as far as hazards
go. For the far eastern plains, most models keep storms south
and east of our forecast area, though some high-based showers
and thunderstorms will also be possible. If a storm manages to
hold together long enough to make it towards the Kansas border,
high-res guidance shows a thin area of increased CAPE that could
support a more substantial updraft, but as of now the chances
for any meaningful precipitation or stronger storms is low.
Tuesday...As an upper trough begins to deepen over the western
states, a shortwave disturbance will pass over Colorado late
Tuesday afternoon. This should provide enough lift to support
more scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms across
portions of the area, along with continued monsoon moisture at
the mid-levels. Storms will initiate over the mountains and
other elevated heating surfaces, before pushing east towards the
I-25 corridor and, later in the evening, to the eastern plains
as well. That being said, the low- levels still appear to be
largely dry, so there may not be sufficient ingredients to
support longer-lived storms. Best CAPE once again seems to be
limited to areas close to the Kansas border, though some
guidance has 800 J/kg or so over I-25 as well. If storms manage
to make it towards the better air, could potentially see some
low-end strong to severe storms late Tuesday afternoon into
Tuesday evening. Otherwise, expect another day of high-based
showers and storms with gusty outflow winds and potentially some
small to 1-inch hail possible. Meanwhile, temperatures will be
similar to Monday, though perhaps a degree or two warmer.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 231 AM MDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Tuesday through Thursday pretty much have the same weather
impacts each day as a closed low stalls over the US West. Each
day there will be weak waves that pass over Colorado. The
current thinking is that each of the waves will spark
thunderstorms over the mountains and mountain valleys during the
mid afternoon and then develop further to the east before
dissipating before shortly after sunset. The main hazards from
the storms appear to be locally heavy rain and gusty outflow
winds. The instability really isnt there each of these days, so
the severe hail risk is low. However, the DCAPE values each day
are above 1000 J/kg, so perhaps isolated 60 MPH wind gust will
develop. High temperatures will be persistent with values in the
80s to 90s over the plains and the 60s to 70s over the mountain
valleys.
Friday through Sunday...The closed low finally breaks free of
being stalled over the US west and ejects over northwest
Colorado. The wave will be the strongest wave of the week, which
will spark more widespread showers and thunderstorms over the
mountains, mountain valleys, and the adjacent plains. MUCAPE
values are less than 1000 J/kg, so the severe risk for hail is
low. The thermodynamic profile over the San Luis Valley is a bit
concerning because of how saturated the profile is  I think
there may be a sneaky heavy rain and flash flood risk over the
mountains and the mountain valleys as the wave passes overhead
on Friday. The profile over the plains have a large T  Td
spread, so the gusty outflow winds are expected. Saturday and
Sunday look drier as the heights rise after the trough passes
overhead with perhaps an isolated thunderstorm over the
mountains.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1131 AM MDT Mon Sep 8 2025
VFR conditions are expected at COS, PUB and ALS over the next 24
hours as upper level ridging continues to build across the Rockies.
There will be high based showers and possible storms across the
higher terrain through the afternoon, with a low probability of
these high based storms bringing gusty outflow winds to the
terminals through the early evening.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...SKELLY
AVIATION...SKELLY

NWS PUB Office Area Forecast Discussion