Randolph, Nebraska Weather Forecast Discussion

267
FXUS63 KOAX 301728
AFDOAX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1228 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Above average temperatures will continue through the weekend,
  with highs generally in the 80s.
- Dry conditions are expected to persist through the work week.
- A pattern shift is expected this weekend, bringing the return
  of precipitation chances (30%) and gradually cooling temperatures.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
Of the past five nights, this one has brought the most cloud
cover to the CWA as a weak shortwave has round the broad trofing
over the western US. A stronger wave sits farther south across
Texas. Both are evident on water vapor imagery. The cloud cover
has helped reflect some of the radiational heat loss back toward
our thermometers mounted at 2 meters AGL. Neligh is still at
68F as of 3am.
The shortwave`s forcing for ascent is weak and low-level
moisture is lacking (bufkit). Have maintained 10-15% PoPs in
northeast Nebraska from 7am to 7pm to account for an isolated
sprinkle. Virga is most likely. Under the cloud cover, today`s
high temps will slip. Despite the warm start to the morning,
plan on highs only peaking near 82F.
Southerly winds continue today and Wednesday, too. Add the
sunshine back for Wednesday and mid to upper-80s can be expected
again. Temps climb another two or three degrees higher yet for
Thursday as the H5 steering flow pushes out of the southwest.
Central CONUS H5 heights peak on Friday with highs making a run
at low 90s. The standing records for Friday (10/3) at all three
climate sites is the same, believe it or not, at 96F set in
1938.
.THE WEEKEND...
An overdue pattern change relies on a broad trof pushing through
the Rockies on Saturday with a surface low rounding the base of
the trof and ejecting into the Northern Plains late Saturday
night. PoPs of 30-40% look a little under representative, but I
left them stand as timing is certainly a question mark. Machine
learning products from CSU, CIPS, and NSSL already suggest a
small chance at severe weather. There will be plenty of time to
interrogate this system as it approaches with the quiet weather
between now and then.
Behind this system, temperatures will slip significantly. A
week from now may end up close to early October norms (70F)
after the new pattern brings this pack of dog days to heel.
There are no freezing concerns in this CWA as of yet.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Tue Sep 30 2025
VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.
Southerly winds continue across the region with wind speeds
around 10 kts through this afternoon and evening. Winds fall to
below 10 kts tonight. High-level cirrus is expected across the
area with a few scattered cumulus anticipated late this
afternoon.
&&
.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen
AVIATION...Chehak

NWS OAX Office Area Forecast Discussion