Raub, North Dakota Weather Forecast Discussion

214
FXUS63 KBIS 020302
AFDBIS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1002 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- High temperatures around 10 to 20 degrees above normal
  expected to continue for Thursday.
- Periods of moderate to heavy rainfall are possible this
  weekend, especially in south central and eastern North Dakota.
- Cooler temperatures return Saturday with temperatures dipping
  slightly below normal early next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1002 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Little needing updating late this evening. Weak front continues
to push across the state, although chances for showers along
this front have diminished. Winds are generally diminishing
behind this front. Dry conditions will limit the chance for fog
tonight. Look for low temperatures tonight in the upper 40s to
upper 50s. Overall the forecast remains on track.
UPDATE
Issued at 638 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Limited updates needed early this evening. A weak front is
moving from west to east across the state. Showers along this
front have started to diminish, with some mid to high level
clouds still possible. A switch to less breezy westerly winds
will also be found with this front. Overall the forecast remains
on track and little updates needed at this time.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
A cold front continues to progress across western North Dakota
bringing in a wind shift from southerly winds to westerly winds.
There are some showers along the front west of Dickinson moving
east, but weak instability and high clouds bases are likely
limiting the extent of showers, as much of the rain is
evaporating before reaching the ground. Drier air will follow
behind the front leading to a decrease in dewpoints. Thus,
allowing overnight low temperatures to drop back into the 50s
across the state, as opposed to lower 60s like last night.
Tomorrow, above normal temperatures will continue across the
region as the upper level heights increase from the ridge
amplifying out east. This will bring widespread 80s across the
state Thursday. Friday will also be a very warm day as the top
of low level thermal ridge passes across the southern half of
the state. Therefore, high temperatures Friday for the south
central and southeastern North Dakotas are forecast to be in
the upper 80s while the north will see upper 70s. The upper
level ridge will continue progress eastward toward the end of
the week while a broad upper level trough deepens across the
Western CONUS progressing into the Central Plains. CSU machine
learning has an area of low probability for Friday and Saturday
for isolated severe weather due to increased instability.
Forecast MUCAPE around 1000-1500 j/kg and shear around 30 to 40
kts could sustain strong to severe storms. We will have to see
if the forcing mechanism, the upper level trough, reaches the
area to align with the greatest instability.
An upper level trough is forecast to move across the Northern
Plains this Saturday through Sunday bringing widespread
precipitation to North Dakota. Showers and thunderstorms could
lead to wide spread rain accumulations. The NBM has around 50
percent of 1 inch of rain down in the south central up to
Devils Lake area. Heavy rain is certainly possible with this
system as PWATs are around 1 to 1.3 inches. The NBM even has
some low probabilities around 20 percent for 2 inches of rain in
the south central. This system will bring in slightly below
normal temperatures Sunday and Monday before warming back up to
near normal by the middle of next week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 638 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2025
VFR conditions to continue through the forecast period. A weak
front will move across the state this evening through tonight.
This will diminish the southerly winds and turn them westerly.
An isolated shower is possible along this front through this
evening, although confidence is too low to include in the TAFs.
Mainly clear skies are then expected for Thursday, with winds
returning to the south.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Anglin
DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...Anglin

NWS BIS Office Area Forecast Discussion