Ray, North Dakota Weather Forecast Discussion

386
FXUS63 KBIS 222359
AFDBIS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
659 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Patchy fog possible tonight through early tomorrow morning.
- Above average temperatures and dry conditions through the
  week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 659 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
A boundary of uncapped mix layer cape up to 1000 J/KG in
southwestern North Dakota has fired off a few thunderstorms
early this evening. Shear is very minimal today, and cape
profiles are generally skinny. The soon to be setting sun should
also limit the duration of these thunderstorms. Thus the threat
for severe weather is low. Added in some PoPs to account for
these storms through the evening. These should diminish around
or shortly after sunset given their diurnal nature.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 219 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
An upper level trough across the Northern Rockies will dive
south of North Dakota bringing no precipitation to the state.
A cold front continues to progress across western North Dakota
bringing forth a wind shift to westerly this afternoon.
Overnight low temperatures are forecast to drop down into the
mid 40s to lower 50s across the state. Increasing clouds will
come with the cold front before clear skies follow. Hi-res
models are hinting that patchy fog could return this morning
across much of central and eastern North Dakota. Patchy fog will
likely remain shallow in nature.
Tomorrow, an upper level ridge is forecast to stretch
northeasterly from the Pacific northwest into the Hudson Bay.
Upper level ridging will continue the quiet pattern across North
Dakota. The upper level ridge will then regress later this week
from the Hudson Bay but remain over the Northern Plains. This
will lead to temperatures in the 70s to lower 80s through the
week. There are no to very low chances of precipitation this
week which will lead to dry conditions. The ensembles remain
pretty consistent on zonal flow returning next week, while the
clusters differ with ridging persisting through early next week.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 659 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
VFR conditions generally expected through the forecast period.
An isolated thunderstorm is possible this evening across
southwestern and south central North Dakota, although are
currently not expected to impact any TAF sites. Some patchy fog
may be found later tonight into Tuesday morning. Confidence was
not high enough to include in TAFs at this time. Mostly clear
skies and VFR conditions will then be found on Tuesday. A light
northwest wind is also expected for most sites through the TAF
period.
&&
.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...Anglin
DISCUSSION...Johnson
AVIATION...Anglin

NWS BIS Office Area Forecast Discussion