Reading Center, New York Weather Forecast Discussion

199
FXUS61 KBGM 252005
AFDBGM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
405 PM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A front moving through is bringing widespread rain to much of
the region this evening. High pressure will return partly to
mostly sunny conditions this weekend. Next week, high pressure
will settle overhead with dry conditions.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A positively tilted but amplified 500 mb shortwave is
propagating through the region today into this evening.
Widespread rain is ongoing for the Twin Tiers and Northward
which will help keep most of the region stable with beneficial
low rain rates. Across NEPA, there has been some warming after
the morning convection with temperatures rising into the mid
70s and dew points in the upper 60s. Instability is building
with shear back around 40 to 50 knots. With a subtle surface
low moving through central PA up into NY, there will be some
backed surface winds as well so some organized convection or
embedded supercells are possible along a squall line as the
cold front moves in.
Tonight, flow becomes NW with drier air advecting in but a few
rain showers will persist of off the Great Lakes though amounts
will be only a few hundreths of an inch with overnight showers.
Tomorrow will warm back up with mostly sunny skies with high
pressure back in place. Fog has been added to much of the area
for Friday night with strong high pressure in place and clear
skies.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure remains in place Saturday but with another trough
digging into the Great Lakes region and into the SE US, flow
aloft becomes southerly with warmer air advecting in. Highs will
be back above average this weekend. Trends Saturday night into
Sunday have been towards a low moving up the east coast closer
to the Mid Atlantic coast. Chances of precipitation have been
increased for the Poconos into the Southern Catskills just in
case trends continue to push the low west. The Great Lakes
trough is also trending more amplified with the tropical systems
helping to strengthen the upstream ridge.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Next week, model trends have been towards a potential tropical
system making landfall in the SE. Over our area, strong high
pressure building in will likely keep any precipitation
associated with the tropical system should be shunted to the
south. With the cool dry air advecting in with the strong high
pressure, there is a frost risk that will have to be watched as
we head into mid to late week for the overnights.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Rain showers will continue to move across the area through
early this evening and are expected to taper off between
00Z-02Z. This will keep both ceiling and visibility restrictions
around most of the terminals, with conditions mainly between
MVFR and IFR with occasional LIFR restrictions. A slight chance
of thunder remains for AVP, but with confidence being low, it
was kept out of the TAF and will be handled by an amendment if
needed.
Low ceilings and areas of fog are expected to be in place late
tonight into tomorrow morning along with an isolate lake effect
shower. Confidence in IFR or lower restrictions is highest at
BGM, ELM and ITH. While ceilings are expected to gradually
improve tomorrow, west to northwest winds off the Great Lakes
are expected to keep some lingering ceiling restrictions at the
NY terminals through the end of the TAF.
Outlook...
Friday afternoon through Tuesday...Mainly VFR. Low chance of
lingering ceiling restrictions Friday afternoon across CNY.
&&
.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...AJG
NEAR TERM...AJG
SHORT TERM...AJG
LONG TERM...AJG
AVIATION...DK

NWS BGM Office Area Forecast Discussion