Rebel Creek, Nevada Weather Forecast Discussion

047
FXUS65 KLKN 221954
AFDLKN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
1254 PM PDT Mon Sep 22 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1051 AM PDT Mon Sep 22 2025
* Quiet weather today through Wednesday.
* Frost over eastern NV Tuesday morning as lows dip well into the
  30s.
* Precipitation chances increase late in the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(This afternoon through next Monday)
WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW: Satellite imagery is mainly clear of
clouds save for portions of northeastern Nevada. The current radar
is free of any returns. A northwesterly flow has taken shape over
the region, bringing in a drier air mass. Winds have remained
mostly light with gusts to 20 mph. Skies will remain mostly clear
tonight with a cool overnight period expected due to the dry air.
Overnight lows will be in the 30s and 40s with cooler readings in
the normally colder valleys in the area. At risk will be sensitive
plants in gardens; these will need to be covered or brought
inside.
For Tuesday, upper level ridge axis will shift east and will get
squeezed by two closed lows, one in Colorado and the other off the
coast of southwest California. Highs Tuesday will be in the 70s
and 80s as heights rise slightly. Winds are expected to remain
light. Mostly clear and dry conditions continue during the
overnight with another cool morning on Wednesday. Lows will be in
the 30s and 40s once again. Model solutions are showing the upper
ridge axis slowly shifting eastward with the California upper low
moving to the east and coming ashore. Conditions are expected to
remain dry during the day with an increase in cloud cover by late
afternoon into the evening in central Nevada. Highs will be warmer
still with readings in the 70s and 80s. Winds will be light.
Chances for showers will increase during the overnight (twenty to
forty percent) across the central areas. Lows will be in the 30s
and 40s with some 50s in central Nevada due to the increase in
cloud cover.
Thursday through the weekend, models are showing the upper low
wobbling across central and southern Nevada during this time.
This will keep the low threat (between fifteen and forty percent)
for rain showers in central Nevada with the northern sections
remaining mostly dry. Under this scenario, afternoon highs will
remain cooler in central Nevada with readings in the 70s, warmer
in the north in the 80s. Overnight lows will be in the 30s and
40s. Winds will be breezy during the afternoon but are expected to
remain below advisory thresholds.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS: Only minor changes were made to
the NBM this period. Confidence remains high in the short term
with regards to the dry weather and gradually warming
temperatures. Confidence drops to low with the path of the closed
upper low coming ashore for the latter portions of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected through Tuesday
afternoon under a stable atmosphere. No precipitation is forecast
through Tuesday. Afternoon wind gusts at KELY near 20KTs will
diminish early this evening.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...No fire weather hazards are noted for the next
several days as high pressure brings dry weather to the region.
Though minimum relative humidity values lower to the teens across
the valleys, the wind speeds are expected to remain below critical
thresholds through at least the mid-week portion. A storm system
will be moving ashore from California by the latter portions of
the week, increasing the chances for light rain showers and
isolated thunderstorms, mainly in the central zones. QPF amounts
are expected to be light across locales south of US Highway 50.
&&
.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...86
AVIATION...99
FIRE WEATHER...86

NWS LKN Office Area Forecast Discussion