Red Springs, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

063
FXUS62 KILM 271754
AFDILM
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
154 PM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will drift offshore tonight with rain chances
lingering along the coast Sunday. Tropical Depression Nine in
the Bahamas should become a tropical storm or hurricane next
week as it moves northward out of the Bahamas, spreading
significant rainfall across the Carolinas Monday into Tuesday
along with dangerous marine weather conditions. Drier and cooler
weather should develop Wednesday through Friday as Canadian
high pressure builds in.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Unsettled weather through the period with a weakening frontal
boundary stalled along the coast. Overnight there looks like enough
dry air west of the boundary for a mostly rain-free night whereas
moisture will still be pooled along the coast for rain chances,
particularly NC over SC. Not so on Sunday however as the twin
circulations associated with the tropical systems offshore start to
push the west atlantic high out of the area. This turns local flow
more onshore locally allowing the moisture to be shunted westward
again. This will call for rain chances area-wide but still likely
maximized along the coast, the same holding true for QPF potential.
Model guidance appears to be trending quickly in that direction.
Cloud cover will help to keep nighttime lows well above normal while
bringing a flattened diurnal curve that may still support a
seasonable afternoon.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
A shortwave will shear out across the Mid Atlantic States
into Tennessee south of an upper level ridge building eastward
across the Great Lakes. While a minority of models continue to
show this shortwave grabbing hold of the tropical cyclone off
the Southeast coast and pulling it toward the South Carolina
coast, a growing number of models now show the storm missing the
connection with the shortwave and remaining offshore.
A decaying front out near the Gulf Stream Sunday night should
push inland Monday in the strengthening easterly flow ahead of
what should be Tropical Storm Imelda. Periods of rain produced
via isentropic processes plus embedded thunderstorms from
elevated convection are expected across the area. Locally heavy
rainfall is possible Monday into Monday night as precipitable
water values surge to 2.0 to 2.2 inches. With clouds and
widespread precipitation Monday`s night should only reach the
mid to upper 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Imelda is forecast to be a category 1 hurricane while centered
near the Gulf Stream off the Georgia coast Tuesday morning.
This is in no way a highly confident forecast, but assuming
recent shifts in model projections are correct and Imelda misses
the connection with the upper level system across the southern
Appalachians, the storm should begin to drift eastward during
the day Tuesday while making its closest geographic approach to
the Carolinas. Deep and very moist easterly flow north of the
hurricane should bring widespread rain with embedded convective
elements across our forecast area throughout the day with storm-
total rainfall through Tuesday afternoon expected to reach 3-5
inches inland and 4-7 inches along the coast. Ongoing D0/D1
drought conditions may partially mitigate the impact this heavy
rain may have on flood risk, but flash flooding could certainly
develop where isolated heavier totals occur.
Wind speeds over land will depend on the precise track the
system takes, but confidence is beginning to increase that we
may not see a direct strike. NHC probs for 34 knot (39 mph, or
tropical storm force) winds range from around 20 percent for
Wilmington and Southport to 30 percent for Myrtle Beach and
Georgetown. 50 knot (58 mph) probabilities are all below 10
percent.
The heaviest rain should end inland Tuesday night inland and by
Wednesday morning along the coast. Strong Canadian High
Pressure building across New England should begin to push drier
air across the Carolinas Wednesday, but will also maintain
breezy northeasterly winds both Wednesday and Thursday in a
tight gradient between the high and Imelda.
This is the first forecast I`ve seen since spring where so many
consecutive high temperatures are expected to remain in the
70s. Lows in the 60s Tuesday night could dip into the 50s
Wednesday night through Friday night as a very fall-like
airmass digs in.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Moisture pooled up along the coast along a frontal boundary right
now while some clearing has occurred inland. Coastal terminals
should continue to see some slight improvement to MVFR and a few
showers are still expected through sundown along the coast whereas
inland terminals remain rain-free. Confidence goes down tonight as
IFR cigs and VSBYs seem to battle especially inland. The lowered
vsbys seemed less likely given the low clouds but the two are not
always mutually exclusive especially in areas that get rain or in
areas that got hit hard with rain last night; a NE to SW band that
could very well be a factor at LBT and FLO. On Sunday showers and
perhaps storms still linger at the coast while FLO and LBT remain
free of vsby restrictions while hovering near MVFR/IFR cigs.
Extended Outlook...MVFR cloud ceilings Sunday afternoon and
evening have a moderate to high potential to fall to IFR in
spots Sunday night. Periods of rain with embedded convective
elements should redevelop across the area Monday as Tropical
Storm (or Hurricane) Imelda moves northward to a position off
the Georgia coast. The storm will meander east of Georgia and
south of Cape Fear Tuesday into Tuesday night with widespread
MVFR to IFR conditions anticipated in rain and low clouds at all
local airports. Wind gusts along the coast could approach
tropical storm force. Conditions should begin to improve
Wednesday but breezy northeast winds could still gust to near 30
knots as strong Canadian High Pressure builds in from the
north.
&&
.MARINE...
Through Sunday...A frontal boundary will sag into the waters
tonight. This keeps winds light and out of the south ahead of the
boundary followed by a turn to onshore Sunday. No appreciable
tropical swell appears to arrive this period so generally expect
waves capped at 3 ft (at most) with periods from 4-7 seconds.
Sunday night through Thursday...
Tropical Depression Nine is expected to be an intensifying
Tropical Storm (named Imelda) Sunday night moving north-
northwestward out of the Bahamas. The latest National Hurricane
Center forecast shows the system moving to a position a couple
hundred miles off the Georgia coast by Tuesday morning and
becoming a category 1 hurricane. Confidence in the storm`s track
diminishes after Tuesday as competing steering flows near the
Southeast coast will attempt to pull the storm either
northwestward toward South Carolina or eastward and farther
offshore.
Over the last 24 hours the majority of models have shifted into
the latter camp, but this is in no way a highly confident
forecast yet. On the current forecast track tropical storm
force (34 knot) winds would develop over our South Carolina
coastal waters Tuesday, spreading northward to encompass the
Cape Fear area waters Tuesday night. Northeast winds 30-40 knots
will continue throughout the day Wednesday, perhaps diminishing
to 25 knots along the South Carolina coast by Wednesday night.
Seas within 20 miles of shore will peak at 8-12 feet. By
Thursday the storm may be crawling eastward and away from the
coast, however, strong Canadian high pressure building
southward along the East Coast will keep the pressure gradient
tight with 25-35 knot northeasterly winds continuing.
&&
.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRA
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...TRA
LONG TERM...TRA
AVIATION...MBB
MARINE...TRA

NWS ILM Office Area Forecast Discussion