Redrock, New Mexico Weather Forecast Discussion

987
FXUS64 KEPZ 221647
AFDEPZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
1047 AM MDT Mon Sep 22 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1100 AM MDT Mon Sep 22 2025
- Isolated showers and thunderstorms each day this weekend,
   mostly across central and southwest New Mexico. Uptick in
   storm chances area wide Friday into next weekend.
- Warm, above normal temperatures today and Tuesday with lowland
   highs in the lower to mid nineties. Backdoor cold front arrives
   Wednesday morning, cooling temperatures closer to normal for
   late September.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1100 AM MDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Subtropical high aloft over northern Mexico today with a
shortwave diving down the central Rockies. Convection-allowing
models have been consistent with keeping southern New Mexico and
far west Texas under the suppressive high, reducing storm chances.
However, the combination of sufficient moisture (precipitable
water 1.0-1.2") and weak forcing from the shortwave to our north
will allow for scattered thunderstorms this afternoon mostly
focused across central New Mexico. Wouldn`t be surprised to see a
few storms across northern Sierra/Otero Counties today.
For the I-10 corridor and International Border, storm coverage
will be very low (5-10% coverage) under the primary influence of
the upper high. This will also keep temperatures well above
normal today and tomorrow. Lowland highs will reach the lower 90s
again today, and El Paso could be as warm as 95-97 degrees.
Similar weather pattern on Tuesday with above normal temperatures
and isolated showers and thunderstorms mostly focused across
central New Mexico (Sierra/Otero Counties for our forecast area).
Surface high builds into the southern High Plains Tuesday night,
enhancing southerly flow and developing a backdoor cold front.
This boundary looks to reach El Paso Wednesday morning. Could see
some gusty east winds up to 40 mph, especially along the west
slopes of the Huecos, Franklins, and Organs. The front will also
bring cooler temperatures, bringing temps down 5-10 degrees. This
will put us closer to normal for late September, with lowland
highs in the mid-80s.
Wednesday`s cold front won`t completely scour out moisture,
keeping slight chances for thunderstorms in forecast especially
for southwest New Mexico. Storm coverage looks be in the 20-40%
range Wednesday/Thursday evenings, with the best chances west of
the Rio Grande. Storms will be mostly non-severe with a risk of
localized flooding.
Eastward shift of the subtropical high combined with a closed low
off the coast of southern California will promote positive
moisture advection into the region and thus an uptick in storm
chance Friday into next weekend. Scattered thunderstorms are
expected area wide those days, with some flooding possible. We
also look to continue a subtle cooling trend, nudging lowland
highs down to the upper 70s/lower 80s by the weekend.
Long term models do show agreement in the end of the summer
monsoon season during the first week of October, as the
subtropical high breaks down and the southern U.S. weather more
influenced by polar jet activity. This is timed well
climatologically, with the North American Monsoon ending September
30 on average. Less moisture and cooler temperatures will mostly
bring the risk of thunderstorms and flooding to an end as we head
into October.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1100 AM MDT Mon Sep 22 2025
VMC expected to prevail all local terminals today and tonight.
Scattered TSRA across central NM after 21Z this afternoon. Skies
FEW-SCT080 this evening, then SKC overnight. Surface winds
generally 240-270 at 08-12 knots, shifting to the NW 290-330 at
05-10 knots tonight. Light winds and clear skies Tuesday morning.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1100 AM MDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Low fire danger this week with below normal ERCs and high soil
moisture. Min RH 30-40% with light west winds 10 to 15 mph. Vent
rates will be Good today and Tuesday afternoon with transport to
the east. Scattered showers and thunderstorms across central New
Mexico, best chances for LNF.
Cold front arrives from the northeast Wednesday morning, shifting
winds to the NE and cooling temperatures back to seasonal. Storm
chances continue for southwest New Mexico, especially for GNF on
Thursday.
Uptick in storm chances Friday into next weekend as coverage
becomes more scattered area wide. Storms will be capable of new
lightning starts over forests, but large fire growth is not
expected due to light winds and wetness.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  96  71  95  68 /   0  10  10  20
Sierra Blanca            91  63  91  62 /  10  10  20  30
Las Cruces               91  64  90  64 /  10  10  10  20
Alamogordo               91  63  90  61 /  10  20  10  40
Cloudcroft               69  48  68  43 /  10  40  30  40
Truth or Consequences    89  62  87  60 /  40  20  20  20
Silver City              83  58  84  58 /  20  10  20  10
Deming                   93  64  92  66 /  10  10  10  10
Lordsburg                88  64  88  65 /  10  10  10  10
West El Paso Metro       93  70  92  68 /  10  10  10  20
Dell City                94  64  93  63 /   0  10  10  30
Fort Hancock             96  69  95  69 /  10  10  20  20
Loma Linda               86  65  86  60 /  10  10  10  30
Fabens                   94  67  94  68 /   0  10  10  20
Santa Teresa             91  66  90  66 /  10  10  10  20
White Sands HQ           92  67  91  65 /  10  20  20  30
Jornada Range            91  62  90  63 /  10  20  20  30
Hatch                    94  63  92  63 /  20  10  20  20
Columbus                 93  66  92  67 /  10  10  10  10
Orogrande                91  62  89  61 /  10  10  10  40
Mayhill                  81  55  78  48 /  10  20  30  40
Mescalero                81  52  80  48 /  20  40  30  50
Timberon                 78  53  77  48 /  10  10  20  40
Winston                  82  50  80  49 /  60  30  30  10
Hillsboro                90  60  88  58 /  20  10  20  20
Spaceport                90  60  88  60 /  20  30  20  20
Lake Roberts             83  52  84  52 /  30  10  20  10
Hurley                   86  59  86  59 /  10  10  20  10
Cliff                    89  60  90  60 /  20  10  10  10
Mule Creek               85  57  86  57 /  20  10  10   0
Faywood                  86  60  86  60 /  10  10  20  10
Animas                   89  65  89  66 /  30  10  10  10
Hachita                  88  63  88  64 /  20  20  10  10
Antelope Wells           90  63  90  64 /  10  10  20  10
Cloverdale               84  62  85  63 /  20  20  20  10
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&
$$
FORECASTER...30-Dennhardt

NWS EPZ Office Area Forecast Discussion