Redway, California Weather Forecast Discussion

271
FXUS66 KEKA 072143
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
243 PM PDT Sun Sep 7 2025
.SYNOPSIS...Wet weather and possible thunderstorms Monday. Chance
for rain and possible interior thunderstorms Tuesday through
Thursday. Drier and warmer conditions are anticipated for late in
the week as ridge builds offshore.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A broad upper level trough and associated cold front will
continue to approaches the North Coast this afternoon, before
moves over the area on Monday. Latest satellite imagery shows high
level clouds streaming from wets- southwest across Northern
California. Light rain or drizzle are probable late tonight into
Monday. Bulk of rain and convective activity will arrive by late
morning/early afternoon on Monday. Generally light to locally
moderate rainfall is forecast on Monday. However, there is a 20%
chance of isolated thunderstorms and a 10% chance for heavier rain
rates (>0.25in/hr) due to steep lapse rates associated with cold
air aloft for mainly the coastal ranges. The potential for
moderate to heavy rain is forecast to diminish Monday night.
As the cold front moves through and the upper level trough
settles over the region, continued shower activity is expected
through Tuesday night. Lingering instability with cold air aloft
could be triggered a few thunderstorms and brief heavy downpours
across the interior Tuesday through Thursday during the afternoon
and evening hours, mainly in Trinity County. The best chance for
interior thunderstorms is Wednesday afternoon, with an increasing
instability up to around 500 J/kg and steep mid-level lapse rates
up to 8C. This could allow isolated to scattered low-topped
thunderstorms (15-25% chance) over Trinity, eastern interior
Humboldt, northeastern Mendocino and northern Lake counties. The
greatest risk for storms appears to be in Trinity County. The main
threat will be lightning strikes, erratic gusty winds and perhaps
very brief heavy downpours.
Drier and warmer conditions are anticipated Thursday into Friday
as ridge builds offshore. Another trough approaches the coast by
next weekend and appears to split or develop into a cut-off.
Forecast confidence this trough or cut- off low will generate more
precip or storms remains very low at the moment. /ZVS
&&
.AVIATION...(18Z TAFs)...A deep marine layer brought brief MVFR
stratus impacts to the terminals early this morning, but VFR
conditions are now being observed at all terminals. VFR conditions
are likely to remain into the afternoon, with some high clouds
streaming in ahead of a low pressure. Models are suggesting stratus
forming late afternoon and evening and moving into the coastal
terminals, bringing IFR to LIFR conditions. Some uncertainty remains
as the approaching low is likely to deepen the marine layer further,
which usually lifts ceilings. Even if ceilings drop to IFR/LIFR, as
the low approaches early Monday morning, ceilings are likely to lift
as mid-level clouds move in. Rain showers begin late morning or
early afternoon, starting first around ACV and CEC, then moving
toward UKI later. JB
&&
.MARINE...Light, mostly southerly winds are expected for the day
today, with seas of 2-4 ft for much of the waters, mostly made up by
small mid-period northwesterly and long-period southerly swells.
Winds increase tonight into Monday as an area of low pressure
approaches the area. The low has tracked south of previous
forecasts, and southerly winds are now forecast to be elevated south
of Cape Mendocino Monday, but still wind gusts peak at 15-20 kts.
Showers and thunderstorms are possible, which, along with lightning,
could bring locally stronger winds up to 30 kts and steep seas. Some
models have these continuing overnight into Tuesday, but confidence
is lower.
Northerlies return Tuesday, with elevated winds forecast south of
Cape Mendocino. Gusts are currently forecast to peak at around 15-20
kts Tuesday, with slightly higher winds possible by Wednesday. These
winds also spread north to the northern outer waters by Wednesday.
Steep seas are also possible with these winds, with seas building to
5-6 ft by Wednesday. Nearshore conditions are currently forecast to
remain milder. Another system late week will ease the northerly
winds and steep seas. A long period NW swell of 5-6 ft is forecast
to fill in Thursday into Friday. JB
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
None.
&&
$$
NOTE: The full forecast discussion is now regularly issued between
10 am/pm and 1 pm/am. Additional updates will be issued as needed.
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https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png

NWS EKA Office Area Forecast Discussion