Reese, Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

292
FXUS63 KDTX 061949
AFDDTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
349 PM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Cool this weekend with highs in the 60s and lows in the lower 40s.
- Isolated showers possible this afternoon and tonight.
- Warming temperatures with drier weather early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Occluded low pressure over Hudson Bay will maintain seasonably cool
conditions and intervals of clouds across SE Michigan through the
weekend. The broad cyclonic height field aloft has directed multiple
embedded shortwaves overhead through the day, supplying a steady
stream of mid-level moisture into the Great Lakes. Additional low
level moisture flux has been occurring from Lake Superior to Lake
Michigan given the large difference in lake temperatures (15-20 C)
and air temperatures (3.2 C at 850mb per the 12z.KDTX RAOB) and
subsequent steep low level lapse rates. Weak instability confined to
the top of the boundary layer has been enough to generate isolated
showers, mainly across the Saginaw Valley/Thumb, which will persist
through the remaining daylight hours. Other point to note is the
seasonably cool conditions, feeling more like early October than
early September. Temperatures sampled in the 12z RAOB are in the 10th
percentile per SPC climatology, with evening temperatures falling
into the upper 50s for most.
Plenty of diurnally driven cloud cover is noted upstream from
Wisconsin to North Dakota, which advects into the Great Lakes
overnight. Did increase sky cover grids to account for the extra
moisture, but should see a general decaying trend to coverage as
daytime heating wanes. Cloud cover prevents overly favorable
radiative cooling conditions from developing to keep overnight lows
in the low to mid 40s despite underachieving high temperatures today.
The upper level height field begins to flatten on Sunday while
surface high pressure builds in underneath. Forecasting soundings
exhibit much drier sub-700mb conditions during the morning than
today, with cloud cover being tied to diurnal mixing. While still
looking at a healthy coverage of cumulus by Sunday afternoon, the
moist layer is shallow enough to limit shower potential. More
sunshine and airmass modification equate to higher temperatures, with
highs comfortably in the mid-upper 60s.
The high pressure circulation then drifts overhead Monday morning,
flipping surface winds to the southwest and initiating a period of
warm advection that persists through mid-week. Most notable influence
is a gradual rise in daytime highs from low 70s on Monday to low 80s
by Wednesday. The shift to southwest flow will also eliminate lake
moisture to ensure dry conditions for a pleasant first half of the
work week.
&&
.MARINE...
Upper level troughing will keep a cool airmass over the region
through the next few days keeping conditions unstable enough to keep
gusty winds over the waters, even as high pressure continues to
build in from the south. Northwesterly flow around the high will
persist with gusts mostly into the teens with some gusts over 20
knots expected over northern Lake Huron on Sunday behind a passing
trough axis. There will be a chance of lake effect showers over Lake
Huron through the rest of the weekend as well with waterspouts
possible. Tuesday and Wednesday may offer a break from the cooler
air as the high drifts off to the east allowing southwesterly flow
and warm air advection ahead of the next cold front.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 132 PM EDT Sat Sep 6 2025
AVIATION...
Cold air advection coupled with diurnal heating has produced a
robust bkn-ovc stratus/strato-cu deck which will hold through at
least the remaining daylight hours. Strong lapse rates also bring
the chance for isolated fleeting shower activity through the
afternoon and evening hours, as well as sporadic gust potential
ranging between 18-22 knots. There is lower confidence regarding
cloud coverage overnight, as loss of daytime heating will act to
decrease some coverage, however, passage of an upper-level
disturbance may help sustain some periodic cloud cover early in the
night. If clear skies are observed, redevelopment of periodic
stratus to strato- cu sub 3kft will be possible overnight.
THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* Low for cigs 5000 feet or less today.
&&
.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...MV
MARINE.......DRK
AVIATION.....AM
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NWS DTX Office Area Forecast Discussion