Reubens, Idaho Weather Forecast Discussion

442
FXUS66 KOTX 211757
AFDOTX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1057 AM PDT Sun Sep 21 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Sunday cold front to deliver cooler temperatures, windy
  conditions, and chances for light showers.
- Another ridge forms Monday into Tuesday, with temperatures
  warming back into the 80s by Wednesday.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
On Sunday, a front will bring cooler temperatures, chances for
showers, gusty winds and a chance for thunderstorms. Chilly
overnight lows expected Sunday night and Monday night.
Temperatures warm again under a ridge of high pressure Tuesday
and Wednesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Today through tonight: A low pressure sitting off the Canadian
coast will move eastward and into the area today and will usher
in a cold front, bringing a change in weather pattern to the
region. The front will begin moving through the area early this
morning and moving east of the area by late afternoon.
Currently, CAMs are showing some light precipitation over
southeast Washington and the Idaho Panhandle ahead of the front
due to some embedded shortwaves in the flow interacting with the
incoming moisture, but amounts will be very light. The CAMs are
showing some convection with these showers as a couple small
areas of vorticity move in with the rain, even though CAPE
values are near zero. After the cold front moves through around
5am, PWATs rise from 0.5-0.75 inches to 1-1.5 inches, which is
100-150% of normal. In terms of precipitation totals, the
highest rain totals will be confined to the mountains, which
have a 50-60 percent chance and higher of seeing 0.10 inches or
more. In the Spokane, Pullman, and Lewiston areas, there is a
15-25 percent chance of 0.10 inches or more through late Sunday
evening. Areas such as the Upper Columbia Basin and Moses Lake
areas have the lowest chances for precipitation totals of 0.10
inches with a less than 10 percent chance. Most of this rain
will fall early this morning, before noon for most places.
Temperatures will drop considerably today, with highs being
nearly 20 degrees colder than what they were yesterday.
In the wake of the front, the atmosphere will destabilize as
CAPE values rise to 150-300 J/kg, low level lapse rates steepen,
and vorticity moves in behind the front. Current thunder
probabilities show a 10-20 percent chance of thunder in the
Okanogan Highlands and eastward, across the Spokane/Coeur
d`Alene Areas, in the Central Panhandle mountains, and across
the Palouse. Highest probabilities are in the northeast
mountains, northern Okanogan Highlands, and Northern Idaho
Panhandle, with these areas seeing a 20-30 percent chance of
thunderstorms. As the cold front moves further away from the
area, thunderstorms will taper off quickly by the evening. Main
impacts with these thunderstorms include lightning, small hail,
and gusty outflow winds up to 40 mph.
Speaking of gusty winds, this afternoon will again have
westerly wind gusts 20-35 mph throughout much of the area due to
onshore flow combined with cold air advection from the front.
Highest wind gusts (30-35 mph) will be near Chelan County and
the Waterville Plateau. These gusty winds combined with the low
rain totals anticipated throughout the Waterville, Moses Lake,
and Upper Columbia Basin areas could result in some blowing dust
issues along Highway 2 from Waterville to Wilbur. Visibilities
could drop down to a mile or less in areas experiencing blowing
dust. Smoke from current wildfires is still impacting parts of
the area, with an Air Quality Alert out for Chelan County and
the Wenatchee and Waterville Plateau areas until further notice.
Monday through Wednesday: Once the low pressure system has
moved out of the area, higher heights will move in behind it,
with a ridge forming Monday night into Tuesday. Temperatures
will begin increasing each day and, much to the dismay of many,
will be back in the mid 80s by Wednesday. Winds will decrease by
Monday, with breezy afternoon winds near 10 mph moving through
the region each day.
Thursday through next weekend: Ensemble analysis continues to
favor higher heights, indicating continued warmer than normal
and dry conditions through Friday. On Saturday, there are a
couple signals of a low pressure system approaching the PNW
coast. However, ensembles are split down the middle on this,
with the other half showing continued ridging through the area.
/AS
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: A cold front will deliver showers and gusty west-
southwest winds today, and a 20-30 percent chance of afternoon
thunderstorms over NE Washington into the ID Panhandle. For
KGEG/KSFF/KCOE chances are 10-20% and thus too low of confidence
to include mention in TAF. Conditions are expected to remain
VFR for all TAF sites but there is some uncertainty mentioned in
confidence section below. Winds will decrease after 01-03z
Monday. Heading into tonight, the skies clear but boundary layer
moisture will bring the potential for patchy fog over the
northeast valleys into portions of the Palouse, thus some
vicinity fog is included in the SFF/COE TAFs toward 12Z.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HREF shows a
20% chance CIGS drop to MVFR with afternoon showers for
KPUW/KGEG/KSFF/KCOE. After 09z Monday, HREF shows a 20-30%
chance of IFR stratus/fog developing for KGEG/KSFF/KCOE as
skies clear and a moist boundary layer lingers. For 00z-12z
Monday, the HRRR smoke models shows increase smoke from Lower
Sugarloaf fire tracking east into the Moses Lake and Spokane
areas. Although this carries low confidence as morning rain may
result in less smoke production than model currently shows.
-----------------------
Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance
For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane
airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/weather.gov/otx/avndashboard
&&
.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
Spokane        67  43  70  46  79  49 /  50  30   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  68  44  70  46  79  50 /  60  40   0   0   0   0
Pullman        66  40  69  43  79  48 /  40  20   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       74  49  74  49  82  54 /  50  10   0   0   0   0
Colville       68  34  71  36  78  38 /  90  40   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      67  40  67  41  76  45 /  70  70   0   0   0   0
Kellogg        67  45  68  49  79  54 /  60  50   0   0   0   0
Moses Lake     73  41  72  43  81  46 /  70   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      72  49  73  52  79  56 /  70   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           74  44  74  48  80  51 /  70   0   0   0   0   0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Air Quality Alert until further notice for Central Chelan
County- Okanogan Valley-Waterville Plateau-Wenatchee Area-
Western Chelan County.
ID...None.
&&
$$

NWS OTX Office Area Forecast Discussion