Rice, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

772
FXUS63 KTOP 222259
AFDTOP
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
559 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Thunderstorms build into the area late this evening into Tuesday
  morning, some of which could be strong to severe and produce
  damaging wind gusts, large hail, and locally heavy rainfall.
- Chances for showers and storms continue through the day
  Tuesday (50-60% chance) and into Wednesday (20-40%) before
  dry conditions return Wednesday night.
- Dry and mild conditions expected Thursday into early next
  week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Shortwave mid-level ridging has built over the Central Plains this
afternoon ahead of a longwave trough that is diving southeast across
the Rockies. Stout capping and a lack of forcing have kept the local
area dry and this will remain the case until later this evening and
overnight. Convective initiation is expected in a couple different
areas this evening, the first being east and southeast Nebraska. A
surface boundary stalls in this area and may be the focus for the
majority of convection, but if a line or cluster of storms becomes
more organized and develops a strong cold pool, it could shift south
into northeast Kansas and produce damaging wind gusts. The second
area to monitor is western Kansas where storms will form along the
surface trough and ahead of a lead shortwave that ejects across
Kansas. A widespread area of showers and storms will swing east
across the state overnight, reaching the western portions of the CWA
between 2-4 AM. 12z CAMs are in good agreement in this activity
bringing the greatest chances for storms and potentially severe
weather. While the early morning hours would typically favor a less
unstable environment, mid-level lapse rates remain steep through the
overnight period with MUCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg allowing for
convection to potentially be strong to severe. A stable boundary
layer could limit some momentum transfer of the strongest winds, but
any linear complex of storms could still produce damaging wind
gusts. The strongest updrafts may be able to produce hail up to
quarter size as well. PWATs around 1.5" will support heavy rainfall
within storms and localized amounts of 2-4" are possible. However,
the progressive nature of convection should keep flooding localized
and preclude the need for a Flood Watch at this time.
The severe potential diminishes through the morning hours Tuesday
with showers and scattered storms continuing through the day. Cloud
cover and precipitation will keep temperatures from warming much and
highs will only reach the low 70s. The main lobe of energy slowly
drifts east across the area into Wednesday with persistent chances
for showers and storms through Wednesday afternoon before the wave
finally pushes east of the area. Mid-level ridging moves overhead
for Thursday into early next week, leading to dry conditions and
temperatures near or slightly above climatological norms.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 559 PM CDT Mon Sep 22 2025
The last several runs of the HRRR suggest little change to the
timing of -TSRA moving into the terminals from the west. Models
and MOS guidance are also supportive of MVFR CIGS moving in by
midday. So confidence in having prevailing MVFR conditions
through the last third of the forecast is good. There still are
questions about SHRA coverage through the afternoon. With the
CAMS showing scattered activity across eastern KS through much
of the afternoon and models still rotating a vort max through
northeast KS, will keep prevailing -SHRA for TOP and FOE. There
may be a break further west so just have a VCSH for MHK through
the afternoon.
&&
.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Flanagan
AVIATION...Wolters

NWS TOP Office Area Forecast Discussion