Riceville, Mississippi Weather Forecast Discussion

878
FXUS64 KMOB 231756
AFDMOB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1256 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
...New Discussion, Marine...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Now through Tuesday...
A more active upper pattern will bring rain back to the forecast
area this week. An upper trough moves east over the Southeast, with
a cool front crossing the forecast area Thursday night in response.
Ahead of the front, a drier airmass over the forecast area at this
time (precipitable h20 values of 1.5" or less) moves off tonight
through Wednesday as the upper trough and surface front approach and
onshore flow becomes more organized. By Thursday morning, moisture
levels rise to above 2.0", with numerous showers and thunderstorms
forming over the forecast area. Behind the front, cooler
temperatures and a drier airmass move over the forecast area
beginning Thursday night/early Friday. A second passing shortwave
trough over the weekend will have little moisture to work with, so
am not expecting any showers as the trough passes.
Looking at any issues with or ahead of the approaching front, SPC
has placed a marginal risk for severe weather encompassing
northwestern portions of the forecast area and northwest for
Wednesday/Wednesday night. Biggest issue will be available
instability. Modest mid/upper support is bringing Bulk Wind Shear
values approaching 40 knots to areas northwest of the forecast area
Wednesday night through Thursday, enough for some organized storms.
Instability is modest in the guidance Wednesday afternoon through
Thursday, with MUCapes around 1500J/kg northwest of I-65 Wednesday
afternoon/night, forecast area wide Thursday. Cloud cover is
expected to limit heating and instability, though, so this value may
be a bit on the high side. If the forecast area sees enough breaks
in the cloud cover for decent heating, the forecast area may see a
few rowdy storms over the northwestern third of the forecast area.
Looking at water issues, with precipitable h20 values rising above
2", heavy rainers are possible. Movement of the storms developing
Wednesday night through Thursday is expected to be high enough to
limit, but not eliminate, localized water issues. Any developing
boundaries may allow some focusing of storm development, so can not
rule out water issues at this point. Will need to monitor.
Temperatures above seasonal norms today will drop to around or a bit
below for Thursday, due to the greater precipitation coverage
through the forecast. Temperatures rise back to above seasonal norms
for the weekend, with guidance modest in the cool push behind the
approaching cold front. High temperatures in the upper 80s to low
90s Tuesday drop into the low to mid 80s for Thursday, upper 80s
southeast of I-65 with this area seeing heavier rains later in the
day. After the front passes Thursday night, the weekend sees a
rebound in temperatures to well above seasonal norms for the weekend
into the coming week, with mid to upper 80s expected Sunday and
Monday. Low temperatures rise into the around 70 to low 70s
Wednesday night. The drier air and clearing skies behind the passing
front will allow overnight temperatures to drop into the low to mid
60s north of I-10 to upper 60s to near 70 south to the coast. Low
temperatures moderate a degree or two through the weekend, with
little change in moisture levels and light winds.
Weak, diurnally driven flow early in the week will become a more
organized onshore mid week. Combined with an increasing tidal cycle,
a moderate risk of rip currents is possible Wednesday night into
Thursday night.
/16
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1249 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. /13
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Tue Sep 23 2025
A more organized onshore flow mid week ahead of an
approaching front will bring a more moderate flow. Light to
moderate flow follows behind the front for the coming weekend.
/16
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      71  90  73  85  68  86  65  88 /   0  20  40  80  60  40  10  10
Pensacola   74  88  76  87  72  84  68  87 /   0  10  20  70  70  60  20  10
Destin      74  87  76  85  73  83  71  86 /   0   0  10  50  70  70  30  20
Evergreen   67  94  71  87  67  86  63  89 /   0  20  30  80  60  50  10  10
Waynesboro  70  92  70  82  64  84  61  86 /   0  50  60  80  30  20   0   0
Camden      69  92  70  82  66  83  62  85 /   0  30  50  80  40  30  10  10
Crestview   66  92  70  88  68  84  63  88 /   0   0  10  70  70  70  20  20
&&
.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
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NWS MOB Office Area Forecast Discussion