Ridge Manor, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

038
FXUS62 KTBW 221812
AFDTBW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
212 PM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 209 PM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
If you think the forecast has been stuck on repeat the past couple
of days, you`d be correct. Moisture over the area will likely be
contained over south central and southwest Florida. Showers and
storms will likely develop later this afternoon before diminishing
early in the evening. However, a few isolated showers and storms can
not be ruled out further north, especially over the interior. The
next few days will be much of the same with afternoon showers and
storms mainly inland and south. Temperatures will be just slightly
above average for this time of year as well. Towards the end of the
week the pattern will start to change as a frontal boundary makes
its way towards Florida. Current models have the front moving
through Florida Saturday into Sunday, increasing rain chances for
the weekend as it does. Unfortunately, this front will not bring
significant cooler temperatures to make it seem more like fall.
The tropics also seem to be waking up with a few areas of interest
on the National Hurricane Centers radar. Major hurricane Gabrielle
is expected to pass east of Bermuda sometime tonight. Two other
areas in the Atlantic also have a chance of developing over the next
7 days. It is still too early to determine the track or strength of
either of these storms, most models do show a NW turn as they
approach the US. However, we will continue to monitor the tropics
and any potential developments.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 209 PM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Mostly VFR conditions expected through the period. Only exception
will be any showers and storms that develop over SWFL that could
impact southern terminals. Conditions quiet overnight. A little more
coverage of showers and storms expected to develop again tomorrow
afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 209 PM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Mostly northeast to east winds continue through the week, with an
a onshore turn each afternoon as the sea breeze develops. Later
in the week a frontal boundary approaches the waters and winds
shift southwest to west and increase. Afternoon showers and storms
will also bring less than ideal conditions as they over the
waters.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 209 PM EDT Mon Sep 22 2025
Ample moisture will limit fire weather hazards through the week.
Daily afternoon showers and storms expected, mostly south of I-4.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  77  92  78  92 /  10  40  10  30
FMY  75  91  75  91 /  40  70  20  50
GIF  75  93  76  94 /  20  60  10  50
SRQ  75  90  75  91 /  20  50  20  30
BKV  71  93  72  93 /  10  40  10  30
SPG  77  89  77  89 /  10  40  10  30
&&
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 6
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 6
For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Pearce
DECISION SUPPORT...Shiveley

NWS TBW Office Area Forecast Discussion