Ridgecrest, California Weather Forecast Discussion

732
FXUS66 KHNX 250830
AFDHNX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
130 AM PDT Thu Sep 25 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Showers and thunderstorms will develop across the San Joaquin
Valley and Sierra Nevada from Merced to Fresno Counties today.
2. There is at least a 5% chance of excessive rainfall across
the Sierra Nevada this afternoon.
3. Near normal temperatures will continue through Sunday with a
cooling trend starting on Monday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Showers and weak thunderstorms continue to form this morning
over the northern portion of Central California. With the center
of the upper low near the Monterey Bay area, the shift onshore
will begin today as the focus will be on the northern portion of
the valley from Merced to Fresno Counties and much of the Sierra
Nevada. Precipitation total during the last 24 hour came very
close to their 75th percentile with heavier rain west of
Interstate-5. Will continue to use the 75th percentile as
precipitation totals for the next 24 hours will range at up to a
tenth of an inch from Merced to Fresno Counties. Across the
Sierra Nevada, those total will range from a half (0.50) an
inch near Yosemite to near a quarter (0.25) over Sequoia
National Park and Forest. With the upper-low overhead today,
the affected areas will have a high probability of observing
thunderstorms. Probability of Thunder will be at around 10%
across the valley with percentages of 20% to 40% across the
Sierra Nevada. With the 90th percentile showing 24 hour
precipitation values approaching 1 inch of rain, thunderstorm
activity across the Sierra Nevada will warrant the excessive
rainfall outlook of at least 5% occurring today. The
temperature profiler at Fort Ord, along with 24 hour change in
temperatures, showed the onshore surge of cool air that will
keep our temperatures at near normal conditions. The upper low
will drop toward Yuma by Friday as wrap-around Monsoon moisture
is shifted out of the area. This change will lower precipitation
accumulation, but linger moisture will allow for the
continuation of convection over the Sierra going into the
weekend and early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
12Z Update:
A 10 percent chance of thunderstorms between 20Z today and 03Z
Friday will exist across the San Joaquin Valley from Fresno
County northward. A 30 percent chance of thunderstorms will
also exist across the Sierra Nevada for the same time frame.
Otherwise, VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours.
&&
.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.
&&
.CERTAINTY...
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.
&&
.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Public/Aviation....Molina
weather.gov/hanford

NWS HNX Office Area Forecast Discussion