Riverdale, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

813
FXUS63 KICT 061913
AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
213 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mild and dry tonight and Sunday.
- A few storms possible Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning.
- Warm-up expected for the latter half of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 213 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
A post-frontal airmass is residing across the region and should
continue to linger over the next couple of days. Temperatures will
be seasonably mild with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s each
day. Additionally, a surface ridge slowly sliding across the region
will keep winds relatively light as well throughout the weekend. In
essence, it`ll be a great weekend for any outdoor plans across the
entire forecast area.
Going into Monday, southerly low-level returns to the region in
response to another subtle shortwave trough embedded in weak
northwest flow moving across the Rockies and High Plains. A bit of
wrench in the forecast is that the axis of greatest instability
(across western Kansas) will be misaligned from the area of greatest
forcing for ascent (across eastern Kansas and the Missouri River
Valley). However, some overlap exists across central/northern
Kansas, and a few isolated storms may develop in this area Monday
afternoon/evening. Model forecast soundings suggest storms may be
elevated, rooted around 850-700 mb, especially after sunset Monday
evening. Still, instability around 1000-2000 J/kg along with
effective shear around 30-40 knots could support some storm
organization. A strong storm cannot be ruled out Monday evening
through Tuesday morning, although better support for more widespread
activity will likely be focused north of I-70 overnight Monday into
Tuesday morning. There`s still a few days for details to be refined,
so stay tuned.
After Tuesday morning, much of the mid/long range global models
remain consistent with showing mid/upper building over the southern
and central plains. While not particularly strong, it will be enough
to close the door on additional rain chances for the remainder of
the week along with allowing temperatures to return to near normal
for this time of year. Highs in the mid 80s is about what we would
expect for early/mid September across the area.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sat Sep 6 2025
Light and variable winds and VFR will prevail through the
upcoming 24-hour period.
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...MWM

NWS ICT Office Area Forecast Discussion