Rochester, Wisconsin Weather Forecast Discussion

816
FXUS63 KMKX 081927
AFDMKX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
227 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A warming trend is expected this week, with high temperatures
  warming to above normal values later this week.
- Gusty south to southwest winds will bring rising waves to Lake
  Michigan beaches, with a Beach Hazards Statement in effect for
  high swim risk conditions in Sheboygan County this evening
  through early Tuesday evening. Moderate swim risk conditions
  are expected at Ozaukee County beaches during this time.
- There are 20 to 30 percent chances for showers and a few
  storms Tuesday night across south central and portions of
  southeast Wisconsin.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
Issued 227 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Tonight through Wednesday night:
Modest southerly winds and warm advection will continue tnt
into Tuesday, while vorticity maximums over the nrn Great
Plains slowly approach srn WI late Tue. The north to south band
of broken mid level cloud cover over south central WI is
associated with 850 mb warm advection and frontogenesis, and
should gradually shift ewd and weaken. Light southerly winds
tnt should be enough to inhibit fog formation along with milder
temps, followed by high temps rising into the middle 70s for
Tue.
A slow moving shortwave trough comprised of a couple vorticity
maximums will pass Tue nt-Wed. Fcst soundings indicate a fairly
moist troposphere from 600 mb upward with very skinny and
marginal elevated CAPE. The overall forcing is weak but enough
for 20-30 percent chances for showers and storms. A dissipating
and dry cold front will then pass Wed nt.
Gehring
&&
.LONG TERM...
Issued 227 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Thursday through Monday:
A large high pressure area will then move from Ontario into srn
Quebec and New England for Thu-Fri, while a narrow but high
amplitude upper ridge builds into the Upper MS River Valley.
Light enely winds and above normal temps are forecast for srn
WI during this time. The upper ridge will then hold in place
and weaken a bit, while an upper low digs swd from James Bay,
Canada to Lake Huron for Sun. At the surface a warm front will
return Fri nt bringing chances for showers and storms and warm
and humid conditions for the weekend. After Sunday there is
much uncertainty on the track of the upper low which will have
implications on temperature and precipitation trends.
Gehring
&&
.AVIATION...
Issued 227 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
VFR conditions will prevail this afternoon through Tuesday. Sct-
bkn060-080.
Gehring
&&
.MARINE...
Issued 227 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
High pressure around 30.3 inches will continue to move east across
the Lower Great Lakes and New England into Tuesday. Meanwhile a
wave of low pressure will move across Lake Superior tonight with
developing breezy south winds especially across the north half of
the lake. The breezy south winds will continue into Tuesday but
become much lighter Tuesday night and Wednesday. A decaying cold
frontal passage is then expected from the north Wednesday night.
Light northeast winds will prevail on Thursday after the frontal
passage, becoming east to southeast for Friday. A Small Craft
Advisory is in effect from Port Washington northward for tonight
and Tuesday for persistent south winds and waves of 3 to 5 feet.
Gehring
&&
.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Beach Hazards Statement...WIZ052...7 PM Monday to 7 PM Tuesday.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643...7 PM Monday to 7 PM Tuesday.
&&
$$
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NWS MKX Office Area Forecast Discussion