Rock Island, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

685
FXUS64 KHGX 131826
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
126 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
...New DISCUSSION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1201 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
- Generally dry and hot conditions expected through the forecast
  period.
- Isolated to widely scattered shower and thunderstorm activity
  possible in our coastal counties Sunday and beyond. Couldn`t
  rule out some of this activity pushing inland on Sunday.
-Rain chances a little higher by weeks` end. But still a generally
 dry outlook through the forecast period.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1245 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
The mid/upper flow pattern over CONUS has kept its "omega-y" look
today. But already, the high looks a tad less stout on water vapor
imagery and RAP analysis than yesterday. That being said, the high
is still expected to be strong enough to keep any afternoon
showers and storms isolated. Today`s PoPs are generally 10-15%. So
a few of those cumulus could grow into a shower or storm. But
most of y`all will stay sunny, hot, and dry. Ridging weakens
tomorrow while PWAT values creep upwards. This should result in a
better chance of isolated to widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms associated with the sea breeze. Some of the CAMs
are suggesting that isolated activity could push farther inland. I
honestly would not be surprised if these CAMs are on to
something. So we opted for ~20-30 PoPs across a good chunk of the
CWA tomorrow.
As for the rest of the week, expect generally dry and seasonably
hot conditions to prevail with a chance of isolated to widely
scattered showers/storms in our coastal counties. Towards week`s
end, a deeper long wave trough may dig over the Midwest and E
CONUS, lower heights and steering a few vort maxes in our
direction. At the synoptic level, we will not be in a lift favored
region. But the vort maxes may help with lift at the mesoscale
level. So we opted for somewhat higher PoPs on Friday areawide.
For those yearning for more specifics regarding temperatures,
expect afternoon highs in the low/mid 90s (upper 80s coast) with
overnight lows averaging in the mid/upper 70s near the coast,
low/mid 70s in urban Houston, and upper 60s to low 70s elsewhere.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 624 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
Isolated patchy fog will start to clear up after sunrise, with VFR
conditions and light E/SE winds prevailing. Isolated rain chances
slated to return on Sunday, mainly near the coast.
03
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1201 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
Light to occasionally moderate east to southeasterly flow
(sustained 10-15kt, occasional gusts to 20kt) will persist through
the next several days with seas generally between 2-4ft. Seas
could occasionally be around 5 feet farther offshore. There will
be a daily risk of isolated to widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms through much of the upcoming week. The persistent
onshore flow will lead to higher than normal high tides through at
least the start of next week, peaking at around 3.3- 3.7ft above
MLLW at times of high tide. This may result in minor coastal
flooding in some low lying spots, particularly on Bolivar
Peninsula.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  70  92  70  92 /   0  10   0   0
Houston (IAH)  75  92  75  92 /   0  20   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  79  89  81  89 /  10  20   0   0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Self
AVIATION...03
MARINE...Self

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion