Rocky Branch, Louisiana Weather Forecast Discussion

957
FXUS64 KSHV 131738
AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1238 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
- High pressure will keep rain chances low and temperatures high
   through the weekend into next week across the Four State
   Region.
- Outdoor humidity will remain low enough to limit more
   dangerous heat, but temporarily enhance wildfire and drought
   development risks further into September.
- Increased rain chances will slowly return to portions of the
   region by the end of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
Persistent ridging aloft will control weather conditions across
the Four State Region through the next seven days. This will keep
the atmosphere suppressed enough for almost no rainfall through
the same period with variably light winds and above-normal
temperature maximums for this time of the year (upper 90s). The
only reprieve from more dangerous heat will come from dew points
remaining in the upper 60s/lower 70s with medium-range guidance
suggesting lower 60s into next week as the ridge axis begins to
break down across the Midwest into the Lower Mississippi River
valley after the middle of next week. That said, this gradually
drier air will become more of a concern for enhanced fire weather
and drought development into next week. Long-range guidance
suggests further degradation of this ridging that opens the door
for a synoptic pattern change to troughing across the Great
Plains, and enhances our chances of rain into late September. /16/
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
For the 13/18z TAFs...A cu field is beginning to develop across
the region that will continue into the evening, clearing to FEW250
at the beginning of the overnight hours. There is disagreement
among model guidance about if there will be more cloud development
in the early morning hours on Sunday. Out of an abundance of
caution I`ve included BKN250 in the forecast, but if recent
conditions persist, it`s possible that things will stay too dry
for cloud cover past SCT. Fog looks unlikely for sites at the
moment due to the lack of moisture, but winds in the eastern half
of the CWA will drop enough for fog development if any moisture
advection makes its way into the region. Winds will stay
light/variable through the period. /57/
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1208 AM CDT Sat Sep 13 2025
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  73  96  73  95 /   0   0   0   0
MLU  68  95  70  94 /   0   0   0   0
DEQ  68  92  68  92 /   0   0   0  10
TXK  71  95  71  95 /   0   0   0   0
ELD  68  94  68  94 /   0   0   0   0
TYR  72  91  71  91 /   0   0   0   0
GGG  71  93  70  92 /   0   0   0   0
LFK  71  94  71  92 /   0  10   0   0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...16
AVIATION...57

NWS SHV Office Area Forecast Discussion