Rogerson, Idaho Weather Forecast Discussion

169
FXUS65 KBOI 140242
AFDBOI
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
842 PM MDT Sat Sep 13 2025
.DISCUSSION...A potent cold front will move through the area on
Sunday morning in eastern OR and southwest ID around midday. This
front will bring showers and scattered thunderstorms. Gusty
outflow winds up to 50 mph possible in the vicinity of
thunderstorms along the cold front. Gusty northwest winds will
follow the front into the evening. Current forecast is on track
with no updates.
&&
.AVIATION...Scattered showers and thunderstorms moving W to E Sunday
morning through evening. Storms capable of MVFR/IFR conditions,
mountain obscuration, gusty outflow winds up to 45 kt, small hail,
and heavy rain. Otherwise, VFR. Smoke layers aloft, improving
Sunday. Surface winds SE-SW 5-15 kt in the morning, becoming W-NW 10-
20 kt in the afternoon and evening. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL: SW 10-
25 kt.
KBOI...VFR and smoke layers aloft. Surface winds: SE 5-15 kt
overnight, becoming NW 10-15 kt gusts to 20-25 kt after Sun/17Z with
cold front. A 30% chance of showers/thunderstorms Sunday afternoon.
Outflows from distant storms may travel to KBOI in the afternoon.
Blowing dust and gusts to 25-40 kt with outflows.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday night...A relatively quiet
evening tonight is in store, outside of isolated thunderstorms
over the central Idaho mountains. An upper trough is approaching
from the west and will move into the region on Sunday, bringing
increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms. Showers will
begin in eastern Oregon Tuesday morning, with perhaps even a few
into the Treasure Valley in the morning hours as well. The peak
of thunderstorm activity will occur during the afternoon along
the I- 84 corridor into southwest Idaho, eventually spreading
into the central Idaho mountains by early evening. Gusty winds
to 50 mph and small hail will accompany the strongest storms.
With seasonably high precipitable water values in place (near
90th percentile), hourly rainfall rates could approach 0.5" with
the strongest storms. A localized flooding threat near burn
scars, but rates generally appear to be below significant
thresholds. This activity will continue shifting eastward into
Sunday evening, persisting over the Idaho mountains into the
late evening hours as the parent system stalls. A quieter day is
in store for Monday, with temperatures in the low 70s.
LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday...As the low pressure
shifts east, a ridge builds over the area and lasts through
Thursday. During this period, the area will see mostly sunny
skies and a return to near-normal temperatures. Wednesday
temperatures rise to 5 degrees above normal before a weather
change Thursday. A complex synoptic pattern sets in Thursday,
with a trough axis extending over the west coast, with possibly
two closed lows to the north and south of our area. Models
disagree on the exact position, but cooler weather with
increasing clouds and a slight chance of showers Friday and
Saturday is in store. Temperatures cool back down to near normal
Thursday through Saturday.
&&
.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.
&&
$$
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DISCUSSION...KA
AVIATION.....SH
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM....JM

NWS BOI Office Area Forecast Discussion