Roxana, Kentucky Weather Forecast Discussion

589
FXUS63 KJKL 190356
AFDJKL
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1156 PM EDT Thu Sep 18 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mainly dry weather looks to persist through the weekend.
- Temperatures will continue to be above normal through this
  weekend and into next week.
&&
.UPDATE...
Issued at 1155 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2025
Forecast continues on track, and evening obs are again blended
into the forecast without any substantive changes.
UPDATE Issued at 851 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2025
Forecast is on track. Evening obs are blended into the forecast
without any substantive changes.
&&
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 302 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2025
A mix of fair-weather cumulus and bright sunshine prevails across
eastern Kentucky this afternoon. Temperatures are rising through
the 80s at issuance time and should attain highs in the mid to
upper 80s in most places over the next couple hours. The pleasant
conditions are due to broad surface high pressure situated over
the Ohio Valley, nearly collocated with a ridge axis oriented from
the Southern Appalachians northwestward into the Upper Great
Lakes. Meanwhile, an upper-level low and its weak surface
reflection are spinning over the Northern Plains.
Through the short-term, these features will gradually propagate
eastward, resulting in a slow departure of the high pressure while
surface/upper lows drift into the Upper Midwest. Locally, a
stable, dry low-level airmass will persist through Friday night as
eastern Kentucky remains firmly under the influence of the high-
pressure system. However, an increase in mid-to upper-level
moisture advection is expected late Friday and Friday night,
leading to an increase in cirriform clouds.
In terms of sensible weather, expect fair conditions to persist,
with the potential for nighttime and morning valley fog in favored
locales. Temperatures are forecast to fall into the mid-50s in
valleys and the low 60s on ridges overnight while thermometers
consistently reach the mid to upper 80s each afternoon. A few of
the warmest locations could approach 90F.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 325 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2025
Little change in the extended, with ridging building above the
eastern CONUS ahead of a developing trough in the central Plains.
Under increased upper-level heights, the warmest temperatures over
the next week come Saturday. Expect highs in the upper 80s to low
90s, and overnight low temperatures generally in the upper 50s to
low 60s. Temperatures gradually decrease by 1-2 degrees each day
Sunday through Tuesday, when the next disturbance looks to
encroach on the area.
As the wave in the Plains begins to develop, low-level flow will
become southerly and begin to advect moisture along the western side
of the Cumberland Mountains. Sunday features 10-20% PoPs in the
afternoon hours to reflect the potential for some low-coverage
afternoon pop-up showers, but confidence in occurrence as well as
specifics about timing and location is still too low to warrant
edits to NBM init.
Monday afternoon, PoPs in the 20-30% range reflect another chance of
lower-coverage afternoon showers that may gain some support in the
form of return flow from a mesohigh that gets stuck on the other
side of the Eastern Continental Divide. Rain chances do seem to
have stabilized some for Tuesday and Wednesday, with widespread
30-40% chances beginning Tuesday afternoon. The nature of shower
and storm chances Thursday and beyond will depend on the speed and
intensity of the shortwave when it arrives to our area, though
current guidance continues 25-40% PoPs on Thursday and Friday as
well.
Wednesday is when ensemble members go from well-aligned to
significantly divergent, with cluster analysis suggesting several
sources of uncertainty driving the disagreement, most of which can
be summarized as "what happens to the low once it bowls into
western Kentucky". Notably, while the EPS/GFS ensembles and EPS-
AIFS and GraphCast GFS machine learning ensembles do all have
differences between resolution of individual features and details,
all generally agree on a deepening upper low pushing towards the
eastern US by mid-week.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
ISSUED AT 851 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2025
Late night and early morning valley fog will bring localized VLIFR
conditions. TAF sites were not affected by fog last night, and
with current temp/dew point spreads larger than 24 hours prior.
they are not forecast to be affected tonight. Outside of the fog,
VFR conditions are expected, along with light winds.
&&
.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...GEERTSON
LONG TERM...CAMDEN
AVIATION...HAL

NWS JKL Office Area Forecast Discussion