Rudolph, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

072
FXUS64 KBRO 201727
AFDBRO
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1227 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE...
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
The pattern for unsettled weather continues through the rest of the
weekend and through the week as upper level divergence persists and
a series of mid-level disturbances pass over Deep South Texas and
the Rio Grande Valley along the eastern edge of a mid-level ridge
over northwestern Mexico. While the PWAT values are generally around
2 inches for the period. This does indicate that the environment is
moist which will help foster the development of showers and
thunderstorms over the region. Given the high amount of PWATs, it
is also possible that some showers and thunderstorms could produce
heavy rainfall at times. PoPs generally range from low to moderate
through the period (20-60%). The highest chances for rain are
typically occur with the daily seabreeze in the afternoons. While
the lowest chances for rain are generally during the overnight
hours. While some of the previous forecast model runs had higher
chances of rain for the middle of the week, associated with a cold
front moving through Central Texas, however the recent model runs
have lowered the chances for rain slightly during that period. This
adds a bit of uncertainty to the chances for rain for the middle of
the week. Will need to continue to observe the model trends to see
what the chances for rain continue to evolve.
As for the temperatures, the highs are expected to be generally in
the 90s with a few places in the western parts of Starr and Zapata
reaching into the the triple digits. While the heat indices are not
expected to be high enough for a Heat Advisory, an SPS for elevated
heat indices might be needed for a couple of days during the middle
of the week. The Heat Risk is generally moderate (level 2 of 4) for
the week, however there are a few regions that become major (level 3
of 4) around the middle of the week. The low temperatures on the
other hand, tend to be around the 70s for the forecast period.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Generally VFR conditons to persist through the TAF cycle at all
TAF sites. Mostly light to moderate southeasterly winds over the
region and a few low-level clouds in the area. While confidence
was not high enough to include showers and thunderstorms in the
TAF package, there is a low chance that a rogue shower or
thunderstorm could impact a TAF site during the afternoon today.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sat Sep 20 2025
Generally light to moderate southeasterly winds with seas between 2
to 3 feet are expected for the forecast period. Chances of showers
and thunderstorms are expected to persist through the period, which
could result in locally elevated winds and seas.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             78  92  78  93 /  20  50  10  20
HARLINGEN               74  93  74  95 /  20  50  10  20
MCALLEN                 77  96  78  98 /  10  30  10  10
RIO GRANDE CITY         74  97  75  99 /  10  20   0  10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      82  88  82  89 /  30  50  20  30
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     77  90  77  92 /  30  50  20  20
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...64-Katz
LONG TERM....64-Katz
AVIATION...64-Katz

NWS BRO Office Area Forecast Discussion