Sagola, Michigan Weather Forecast Discussion

366
FXUS63 KMQT 231951
AFDMQT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
351 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mostly cloudy skies with low clouds and patchy fog through
Wednesday.
- Warmer and sunnier on Thursday, with seasonable temperatures
continuing through the end of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 351 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
A sprawling, positively tilted longwave trough extends from northern
Quebec across the central Plains and back into the Four Corners
region today, with an embedded upper low centered near the eastern
end of Lake Superior. Upper Michigan is situated in northeast flow
aloft on the periphery of this low, with radar picking up a few
isolated showers across the area. Low level northerly flow maintains
low stratus over much of the area today, with some reports of patchy
drizzle across the higher terrain this afternoon. The abundant cloud
cover has helped to hold temperatures down in the low 60s across
much of the area today, with the exception of the south-central UP
where more broken cloud cover has allowed temperatures to climb into
the upper 60s to around 70 degrees. Could see some patchy fog
formation across the area again tonight, but coverage will likely be
less than previous nights given low stratus already in place and
slight higher wind speeds. Expect similar conditions for Wednesday
as the upper low slowly sinks southward into northern Lower
Michigan, maintaining cloudy conditions across the UP with a few
showers remaining possible in the eastern half. As a result, high
temperatures will likely remain in the low to mid 60s.
Will see some improvement in the dreary weather by Thursday as the
upper low to the south weakens into an open wave and starts to shift
eastward with the longwave trough. This will allow shortwave ridging
to move over Lake Superior from the northwest, promoting sunnier
skies and warmer temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s. A more
progressive pattern develops by the end of the week as a pair of
deep low move quickly across northern Ontario and push associated
fronts across the UP late Thursday and again on Saturday. Expect
negligible impacts in terms of sensible weather, as models keep the
area mostly dry during this period given a lack of appreciable
moisture or instability. Winds will likely become a bit breezier out
of the west by this weekend. Otherwise, temperatures look to remain
near or slightly above seasonal norms in the upper 60s to mid 70s
through the end of the long term.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 120 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Persistent IFR/LIFR cigs continue through this TAF period at all
sites with the exception being CMX where a majority of guidance
suggest a gradual improvement to MVFR and maybe even IFR this
evening. Opting for more of a persistence TAF forecast tonight into
tomorrow morning with IFR/LIFR fog and low stratus impacting all
terminals, especially SAW/IWD where light northerly upslope flow
will help keep IFR or lower conditions around through tomorrow
morning. Otherwise, no precip is expected with light northerly winds
generally sub 10 kts calming overnight.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 351 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
Light NE breezes around 10 kt persist over Lake Superior through
Wednesday, with significant wave heights remaining at 2 ft or less.
Winds will be a bit gustier over the eastern half of the lake, with
gust to 15 kt and scattered showers continuing in closer proximity
to an upper level disturbance located just to the east. Wind will
increase later in the week as a front move across the lake
accompanied by westerly winds in the 15-20 kt range. Expect 15-20 kt
NE winds in the wake of the front on Friday, followed by another
round of westerlies in the 20-25 kt range as another front sweeps t
through the region on Saturday. Could continue to see patchy fog
over parts of the lake again tonight into Wednesday morning.
&&
.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...CB
AVIATION...BW
MARINE...CB

NWS MQT Office Area Forecast Discussion