Saint Charles, Virginia Weather Forecast Discussion

056
FXUS64 KMRX 181741
AFDMRX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Morristown TN
141 PM EDT Thu Sep 18 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 138 PM EDT Thu Sep 18 2025
- Unseasonably warm temperatures will persist into early next week.
   However, no threat of any daily max T records being broken.
- Mostly dry valley conditions expected through the weekend.
   However, rain chances have increased across the east TN
   mountains and Cumberland Plateau.
- More widespread chances for rain and storms in place by early to
   mid next week. The severe weather threat is uncertain at this
   time.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 138 PM EDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Quiet conditions through the rest of the afternoon and evening,
outside of an isolated shower or storm across southwest NC. Tonight,
patchy dense fog along a few of the area waterways is once again
possible.
High pressure remain in place on Friday with most of the area dry. A
few isolated showers and storms are possible across the east TN
mountains and down into southwest NC.
Previously, the NBM was dry all weekend but the NAM was showing a
weak shortwave moving across the region. The NBM has now trended
toward that pattern. This has resulted in slight chance to chance
POPs in place across the east TN mountains and foothills, along
with southwest NC on Saturday. There is a low probability that
one of these showers or storms could drift down into the valley
later in the afternoon. On Sunday the wave is to our east but the
flow is zonal. This leaves the door open for a few additional
isolated showers and storms during the afternoon hours, but again
focused along our terrain, but lower chances than Saturday.
Thereafter, we are still tracking a deep upper low that will
approach our region by early to mid week. This system will
increase rain and storm chances areawide, with the highest chances
likely being Wednesday and Thursday. There aren`t many more
details that can be said yet due to the uncertainty with how this
system will evolve. This is mainly due to the chances that the low
could become cutoff from the main flow, which makes timing and
prediction of impacts very difficult. Having said all that, the
threat for severe weather is uncertain at this time but is
something we will continue to monitor the potential for.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 138 PM EDT Thu Sep 18 2025
VFR conditions expected through the period. Confidence in overnight
fog is once again low. However, will go with a persistence forecast
and keep mention of some MVFR fog in at TRI.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Chattanooga Airport, TN             63  90  65  90 /   0   0   0  10
Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN  62  87  64  87 /   0  10   0  20
Oak Ridge, TN                       61  88  62  87 /   0   0   0  20
Tri Cities Airport, TN              58  85  58  84 /   0   0   0  20
&&
.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...99
AVIATION...99

NWS MRX Office Area Forecast Discussion