San Antonio, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

703
FXUS62 KTBW 251054
AFDTBW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
654 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
...New AVIATION...
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 646 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
VFR conditions are expected today outside of widely scattered
storms this afternoon. Chances remain fairly low for today, but
enough to warrant a short window of VCTS for several sites. The
general movement will be inland and winds remain out of the west
or northwest.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1203 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Weak surface high pressure will hold over the forecast area today
with continued warm temperatures. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms will develop this afternoon with the best chance for
rain over the interior as weak boundary layer flow will allow the
west coast sea breeze boundary to push well inland this
afternoon.
An U/L trough and associated cold front will move over north
Florida on Friday with an increasing chance of
showers/thunderstorms across the nature coast. The frontal
boundary will stall across north central Florida Friday night and
Saturday with a continued chance of showers and thunderstorms,
with highest pops central and north.
The U/L pattern will become more complex Sunday and Monday as a
weak rex block develops over the eastern U.S. A potential
tropical system is expected to move just east or over the
Bahamas...moving somewhat parallel to the east coast of Florida.
The rex block (with the associated cut-off low over the southeast
U.S.) will likely play a key role in steering this system.
The U/L rex block will begin to break down mid week, with surface
high pressure building back over west central and southwest
Florida. Temperatures will run several degrees above climatic
normals through the period. A chance of an afternoon shower or
thunderstorm each day.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1203 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
Increasing chance of showers/thunderstorms across the northern
waters Friday through Saturday associated with a weak frontal
boundary. High pressure will build back over the waters on Sunday
and into early next week with low pops each day. Gradient will
remain rather weak through the period with winds and seas below
cautionary levels.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 1203 AM EDT Thu Sep 25 2025
No fire weather hazards are expected through early next week as
sufficient moisture will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity
values well above critical levels.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  92  78  90  78 /  30  20  40  30
FMY  91  76  91  75 /  40  20  30  10
GIF  93  75  92  75 /  50  20  50  20
SRQ  90  76  89  75 /  30  20  30  30
BKV  91  72  90  71 /  30  20  50  40
SPG  89  78  87  77 /  30  20  40  30
&&
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 1
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 4
For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
$$

NWS TBW Office Area Forecast Discussion