San Carlos, Arizona Weather Forecast Discussion

559
FXUS65 KPSR 141100
AFDPSR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
400 AM MST Sun Sep 14 2025
.UPDATE...Updated Aviation Discussion
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Near to slightly below-average temperatures today before
  gradually warming through the early part of the work week.
- No showers or storms expected today through the first half of
  the week, with mostly sunny skies and light winds.
- Potential for a widespread rain event late week into next
  weekend with a push of moisture, but there is still a high
  degree of variability with this forecast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The trough that brought us drier conditions and cooler
temperatures, as well as helped spawn a widely seen tornado in
southeast UT yesterday is moving into the Plains today. Another
shortwave trough is seen moving into OR on water vapor satellite
early this morning. There is also a much weaker low circulation
evident due west of the northern Baja Peninsula. This weak low
may actually play a role in our weather for the end of the week,
but for now weak anti-cyclonic flow is now in place over southern
AZ and SoCal with a strengthening high pressure over north-central
MX expected to slowly expand into the Desert Southwest through
Monday.
Mesoanalysis shows much drier conditions are now in place
across all of AZ and SoCal, with most of the region at or below
0.5" PWAT magnitudes. This dry air will keep rain chances at
nearly 0% for the whole region through at least Monday. The drier
low level conditions, plus the clear skies, are helping maximize
radiational cooling and will continue to result in cooler, more
crisp, mornings. Low temperatures across the lower deserts this
morning will once again be in the low to mid 70s in most urban
centers, with several rural and outlying communities dipping into
the 60s. The same can be said for Monday`s forecast lows, but just
a touch warmer (+1-3 degrees). High temperatures today are
forecast to be right near to just below daily averages, with many
lower desert locations once again coming shy of the century mark.
The little bit of warming into Monday will yield highs 2-4 degrees
warmer, with most urban areas expected to reach 100-103 degrees.
Take advantage of the cooler mornings, but still play it safe in
the afternoons. Long exposure to 90+ degree heat in the afternoons
can still have negative health impacts without proper heat safety
actions.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Forecast confidence through the first half of this coming work
week remains high. High pressure will continue to nudge into the
region, leading to a gradual rise in 500mb heights. Global
ensembles have H5 heights peak around 590dam on Tuesday, which is
around 80th percentile of climatology for this time of year. As a
result surface temperatures will climb slightly above normal for
at least Tuesday and Wednesday. Latest NBM forecast has afternoon
highs reaching 101-105 degrees both days. There will be a slow
return of moisture through Wednesday, enough for some clouds to
develop, but likely not enough still for showers or storms in
South-Central AZ to Southeast CA. Latest NBM PoPs are at 

NWS PSR Office Area Forecast Discussion