San Felipe, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

552
FXUS64 KHGX 190451
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1151 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
...New DISCUSSION, MARINE...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1247 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
- Continued hot conditions w/ a daily risk of isolated to widely
  scattered showers and storms over the next few days.
- Pattern expected to become more active next week, with a better
  chance of showers and thunderstorms.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1124 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Warmer than normal temperatures will continue through the weekend
along with isolated showers and thunderstorms. Activity expected
to peak during the afternoon hours with daytime heating.
Southeasterly flow will prevail in the low levels this weekend,
bringing a deeper layer of Gulf moisture into SE Texas. Rain
chances will increase as a result of the influx of moisture. With
the plume of moisture coming from the south, expect the coastal
areas up to the Houston Metro to experience the higher chances of
rain to start. Most activity is expected to be in the afternoon
hours, again with peak daytime heating. As mentioned by previous
forecaster, NW flow aloft tends to be tricky for this area, so
will need to monitor the northern areas for any embedded
shortwaves in the overall flow. Any such event could trigger
thunderstorms in that area. NBM came in a bit higher than
previously forecasted, so it seems to be catching up to the other
deterministic models that have suggested an increase in PoPs. In
any case, expect the weather pattern to transition to become more
active over the next few days.
Adams
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
Showers are expected to diminish gradually by sunset, leading to
a quiet night with light and variable winds. Some fog will be
possible near sunrise at KCXO and KLBX. Winds will pick up after
mid/late Friday morning, reaching speeds of 8 to 12 knots in the
afternoon. A few showers and storms will be possible in the
afternoon, but aren`t included in TAFs due to low confidence in
timing and coverage. Aside from a brief MVFR period due to fog
early in the morning, VFR conditions are expected to prevail for
the majority of this TAF cycle.
JM
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1124 PM CDT Thu Sep 18 2025
No changes to note from the previous discussion. Expecting East
to southeast winds 7-15kt and 2-4 ft seas to continue over the
next several days along with a daily risk of isolated to widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms. Isolated showers and storms
to start for Friday, particularly in the afternoon hours.  A more
predominate southeast wind direction will emerge later this
weekend along with a gradual increase in speeds, seas and rain
chances into next week. 47/Adams
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  71  94  70  94 /  30  20  20   0
Houston (IAH)  73  94  72  93 /  20  20  20  10
Galveston (GLS)  79  89  79  88 /  10  20  10  20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Adams
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...47/Adams

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion