San Isabel, Colorado Weather Forecast Discussion

623
FXUS65 KPUB 011118
AFDPUB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
518 AM MDT Wed Oct 1 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Our warming and drying trend continues today, with above
  normal temperatures and dry weather expected.
- Breezy to windy conditions Friday and Saturday as an upper
  level weather system translates across the Rockies.
- Well above seasonal temperatures on Friday with increasing
  coverage of showers and storms Friday night and Saturday over
  the higher terrain.
- Cooler and more unsettled weather remains on tap for the
  weekend into early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 306 AM MDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Currently...
Water vapor imagery reveals dry air over much of the region,
especially to our south. Skies are mostly clear. Our flow aloft is
mostly westerly, with weak surface winds following mostly nocturnal
drainage patterns over and near the mountains. Further east, winds
on our plains are weak and southerly. Temperatures are warmer than
normal for this time of year, with much of our plains still in the
50s and 60s as of 2 AM. The San Luis Valley is cooling quickly
though. Alamosa is down to 37 as of 2 AM with a dewpoint of 34.
Given weak winds, portions of the San Luis Valley are likely to see
patchy frost by sunrise, especially central and southern portions.
Today and Tonight...
Our flow aloft remains zonal throughout the day today, becoming
slightly more southwesterly by tonight. Rising heights and modest
westerly flow will lead to warmer daytime highs over the high
country than where we were yesterday, though not much change is
expected for our plains. We will remain several degrees warmer than
normal for most, with highs into the mid 70s for mountain valleys
and the Pikes Peak region, and mid 80s for the rest of our plains.
Some mid-level cloud cover will be possible today, mainly over and
near the eastern mountains and the Pikes Peak region, with most
other areas remaining mostly sunny. Showers and thunderstorms are
not expected today. We cool off more efficiently for overnight lows
given the drying conditions, but are still likely to remain around 5
or 6 degrees warmer than normal for much of our plains. This will
mean lows in the upper 40s and low 50s on our plains and for the
middle Arkansas River Valley, and low to mid 30s for the San Luis
Valley.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 306 AM MDT Wed Oct 1 2025
Modest westerly flow remains in place across the region on Thursday, as
upper level ridging continues to build across the Rockies. This pattern
will keep dry conditions in place across the region, with above seasonal
temperatures in the 80s across the plains, and mainly in the 60s and 70s
across the higher terrain, under mostly sunny skies.
Thursday night-Saturday night...Latest operational and ensemble model data
are coming into better agreement with a broad upper trough digging into the
Great Basin on Friday, which then lifts out across the Rockies on Saturday.
Increasing southwest flow allows for breezy conditions over and near the
higher terrain on Friday, with lee troughing leading to breezy southerly
winds across the plains. The breezy and dry conditions will lead to elevated
fire danger across the area, though recent precipitation will limit critical
fire weather conditions, with no fire weather highlights expected at this time.
Temperatures are expected to be well above seasonal levels on Friday, with
highs in the 80s to lower 90s expected across the plains, and in the 60s
and 70s across the higher terrain. Current records for October 3rd are 79F
at ALS in 2024, 87F at COS in 1935, and 94F at PUB in 2018.
Increasing southwest flow aloft will bring increasing coverage of showers
and a few possible embedded thunderstorms along and west of the ContDvd
Friday night and Saturday, with chances of precipitation spreading east
through the day Saturday. Breezy west to southwest winds across the region
Friday night becomes more westerly and remain gusty as the passing system`s
bora front translates across south central and southeast Colorado through
the day. This will allow for temperatures to warm quickly on Saturday into
the 70s and 80s across the plains, with mainly 50s and 60s across the higher
terrain, save for 30s and 40s across the peaks. Current model data keeps the
best chances of precipitation along the ContDvd with snow levels remaining
relatively high (at or above 10,000 feet) leading to some light accumulations
across the higher peaks. Cooler and much drier air filters into the region
behind the passing system Saturday night, leading to the potential for
sub-freezing temperatures across the higher terrain into early Sunday morning.
Sunday-Wednesday...Latest model data differ on the timing and location of
secondary energy digging back across the Great Basin, as well as the
amount of available moisture across the region into the beginning of next
week. With that said, NBM data keeps temperatures at to slightly below
seasonal levels, along with chances of precipitation areawide into early
next week.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 518 AM MDT Wed Oct 1 2025
VFR conditions are expected at all three TAF sites for the next 24
hours. Winds will be light and diurnally driven. Scattered mid and
upper-level cloud decks will prevail through much of the forecast
period.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...EHR
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...EHR

NWS PUB Office Area Forecast Discussion