Sangre De Cristo Ranches, Colorado Weather Forecast Discussion

138
FXUS65 KPUB 172350
AFDPUB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
550 PM MDT Wed Sep 17 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Strong to severe thunderstorms are likely across the
  southeast plains through this evening.
- Moisture begins to dwindle on Thursday with another day of
  cooler temperatures.
- Warmer and drier from Friday through the weekend into early
  next week, with just some very isolated afternoon
  thunderstorms possible over the mountains.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 323 PM MDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Main forecast concerns this period are with thunderstorm
development along with the high likelihood for strong to severe
storms. Latest radar imagery has shown an uptick in thunderstorm
development over the last hour or two. While coverage has
remained isolated, intensity has quickly increased over the last
30 minutes. This is in response to lee troughing, ahead of
approaching shortwave energy rounding the base of the deep
trough in place. Do anticipate coverage to remain somewhat
limited over the next 1-2 hours, tied closer to the Pikes peak
region and Raton Mesa where backing flow is supporting deep
upslope. While some mixing has occurred, sufficient moisture
remains in place and is supporting CAPE values around 1000 j/kg,
with even some pockets of values in the 1000 to 1500 j/kg
range. This instability along with strengthening mid flow and
increasing shear values around 35 to 45 kt will support the
development of strong to severe storms. Still anticipate the
strongest storms in these locations will be capable of producing
wind gusts to 60 mph, hail to 1.5 inches in diameter, and
locally heavy rainfall.
By early this evening, development across the Pikes Peak region
and Raton Mesa will continue but also expand in coverage over
much of the southeast plains. This will be in response to
additional energy pushing through and continued strengthening of
the low/mid level trough in place. This will support a quick
increase in ascent across the plains, with forecast soundings
really showing this rapid increase in omega this evening.
Additionally, increasing mid level flow with increasing/backing
surface flow will support additional increases in bulk shear.
Again, with this shear, instability, and now increased ascent,
expect the severe threat to continue well into the evening over
the plains. Instability and moisture are higher further to the
east and with bulk shear anticipated to increase, think
locations closer to the Colorado and Kansas border will have the
higher chances for wind gusts in the 60 to 70 mph range and
hail up to around 2 inches. Additionally, the above mentioned
strengthening flow will support a slight increase for a tornado
or two across the southeast plains. The severe threat will lower
by late this evening, though cyclonic flow in place will likely
support continued scattered shower and thunderstorm development
well into the overnight hours.
Upper long wave trough will continue east on Thursday, with
drying the trend. This will support little to no precip
development for most of the area, with the exception of some
isolated development over the higher terrain.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 316 AM MDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Upper low departs and ridge builds on Friday, with warmer
temperatures and only some isolated/weak convection over the
higher terrain along the NM border. Main change to Friday`s
forecast was to nudge max temps upward a few degf at many
locations, as NBM looked too cool given warmer more recent 00z
statistical guidance. Upper ridge flattens a bit over the
weekend, allowing leftover mid-level sub-tropical moisture to
drift into the state, which will in turn drive an increase in
mountain convection both Sat/Sun. Storm intensity/coverage
look weak/isolated through the period, with mainly lighting,
wind and light rain/sprinkles with most activity.
Ridge rebuilds over Rockies early next week, keeping warm
weather in place while moisture and thunderstorm chances
decrease. Some potential for a cold front by mid-week as short
wave energy crests the ridge and dives into the central U.S.,
though model spread on details/timing are rather large at this
point.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 541 PM MDT Wed Sep 17 2025
Shower and thunderstorm activity continues at COS and PUB
through 02Z, with potential for brief MVFR conditions at
the terminals in heavy rain, as well as strong outflow
winds and possible small hail. Convective activity looks
to move east of the terminals after 02Z, with VFR conditions
prevailing through the rest of the taf period. Skies slowly
clear overnight with clear skies through the morning before
some clouds build over the mountains through the afternoon.
There is a low chance of showers in the vcnty of COS Thursday
afternoon, but too low to include in the taf attm.
VFR condtions to prevail at ALS over the next 24 hours.
Convective activity north of the terminal will wind down
by 02Z, but included a prob30 -tsra for mainly gusty winds
at the terminal. Skies clear overnight, with VFR conditions
and generally light winds expected at ALS through the day
Thursday.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...MW

NWS PUB Office Area Forecast Discussion