Scandinavia, Wisconsin Weather Forecast Discussion

260
FXUS63 KGRB 141753
AFDGRB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1253 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
Updated aviation portion for 18Z TAF issuance
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Areas of fog, locally dense, will impact travel late tonight
  into early Monday.
- Mainly dry through Tuesday, with a chance of showers and
  thunderstorms returning late Tuesday night into Wednesday and
  continuing into Saturday.
- Much above normal temperatures today through mid-week, with a
  significant cool down expected from Friday into the weekend. The
  warmest day is expected on Tuesday, when highs reach 10 to 15
  degrees above normal.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 410 AM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
Fog Trends: The fog forecast is a bit tricky early this morning.
Low stratus has expanded over NC/C WI, where the boundary layer
flow is a bit stronger, and this has prevented vsbys from
bottoming out in most places. In far eastern WI, where many areas
have clear skies, fog has been slow to develop or vsbys have been
variable. Suspect that fog will settle into these areas within
the next couple hours. In between, from IMT-EZS-CLI, vsbys have
been at or below 1/4sm for several hours. Given recent trends and
model vsby forecasts, have opted to issue a Dense Fog Advisory for
most of far northeast and east central WI through 9 am. Will
monitor trends to see if any adjustments need to be made. Fog
potential will return late tonight, with models showing the best
chance for widespread (and locally dense) fog over far northeast
WI.
Precipitation Trends: Dry weather returns for the rest of the
weekend and early next week as strong upper level ridging occurs,
and high pressure over Ontario ridges into NE WI. A chance of
showers and storms arrives late Tuesday night or Wednesday, as
the upper ridge shifts east. A cold front is expected to sag south
across the area during the Wednesday night to Thursday night
period. In addition, an upper low over the Northern Plains will
track toward the Upper Mississippi Valley by the weekend. These
features will keep a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the
forecast through at least Saturday, but most of this activity
should be scattered, with the best chances occurring during
peak heating.
Temperature Trends: Temperatures will remain well above normal
through most of the work week, with highs peaking in the mid to
upper 80s (10 to 15 degrees above normal) on Tuesday. A post-
frontal cool down is expected late in the week, with highs
dropping into the 60s by the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Sun Sep 14 2025
VFR conditions are expected for the majority of the time
throughout this forecast period. The only exception being the
potential for low stratus/fog to develop late tonight into Monday
morning. However, the extent of the coverage looks to remain in
far northeast WI, but cannot rule out some patchy fog at the
east-central WI TAF sites and RHI. Any fog/stratus will lift soon
after sunrise, leaving good flying conditions for the remainder of
this TAF period and into Monday afternoon.
&&
.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION.....Kieckbusch
AVIATION.......Kruk

NWS GRB Office Area Forecast Discussion