Seabrook, South Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

988
FXUS62 KCHS 101220
AFDCHS
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
820 AM EDT Wed Sep 10 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure will prevail into the weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Quick update to expand the Coastal Flood Advisory to include the
lower SC coast and the southeast GA coast. Otherwise, no changes
to the forecast.
The mid-levels will consist of weak troughing over the
Southeast U.S. this morning. It`ll strengthen over the entire
East Coast this afternoon through the overnight in response to
ridging building over the Central Plains. At the surface, High
pressure will remain firmly over the East Coast, with a
stationary front well to our south and southeast. The periphery
of the High will continue to dominate our weather, bringing dry
conditions. Though, there will be a mix of sun and clouds,
especially closer to the coast. Expect N to NE winds this
morning, becoming light in the afternoon. The combination of the
wind direction and occasional clouds should keep high
temperatures slightly below normal. Highs should range from the
lower to middle 80s. Lows will range from the upper 50s far
inland to the upper 60s near the beaches.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Quiet conditions are expected to prevail heading into the
weekend, as upper level troughing deepens across the eastern
CONUS. Meanwhile, at the sfc, will see sfc high pressure linger
overhead - allowing conditions to remain dry across our area.
However, for those with any outdoor/recreational plans, do think
it`s worth noting that daily chances for showers will still be
possible across our offshore waters. In regard to temperatures,
have afternoon highs generally in the mid to upper 80s, with a
few spots across interior southeast Georgia hitting 90 degrees
by Friday. Otherwise, look for lows to remain in the 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Upper level troughing continues into the extended, though some
weak ridging may begin to nudge into our area by Monday.
Nonetheless, with high pressure still at the sfc, expect dry
conditions to persist. Outside of this, look for afternoon highs
to gradually warm back into the upper 80s to low 90s.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
12Z TAFs: Satellite imagery indicates low stratus clouds
floating in from the north/northeast, with surface observations
underneath indicating MVFR ceilings. The models don`t have a
good handle of the stratus, but based on satellite trends, we
expect MVFR for KCHS and KJZI through the early morning hours,
with improvement to VFR as the stratus dissipates. Though, the
exact timing of this is somewhat uncertain and amendments may be
needed. KSAV will maintain VFR.
Extended Aviation Outlook: Mostly VFR though there could be a
few periods of restricted ceilings due to late night/early
morning stratus.
&&
.MARINE...
Today and Tonight: High pressure will continue to prevail
inland, while a stationary front is well to the south and
southeast of the coastal waters. This synoptic pattern will
continue to create an elevated surface pressure gradient this
morning, yielding somewhat strong and gusty NE winds. Though,
the gradient along with the winds and seas will trend lower this
afternoon, with the trend continuing into the evening and
overnight. The last Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the GA
waters beyond 20 nm due to seas. But it may need to be dropped
sooner than advertised if seas are lower than forecasted.
Thursday through Monday: Northeast flow is expected to prevail
across the local waters through the weekend. While winds looks
to remain relatively light Thursday, should see another surge
occur by Friday afternoon as the sfc pressure gradient tightens.
Additional SCA may bee needed throughout the weekend, due to
increased winds and seas.
Rip Currents: The combination of persistent northeast winds,
astronomical factors, and elevated swell will yield a Moderate
Risk of rip currents at all beaches today and Thursday.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Astronomical tide levels will remain elevated through the rest
of the week due to the recent full moon and todays lunar
perigee. Total water levels will remain high from large tidal
departures due to the pinched pressure gradient/elevated
northeast winds.
Charleston Tide Gauge: A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect
for this morning`s high tide.
Fort Pulaski Tide Gauge: Observational trends and model data
suggest that the tide will peak right around 9.5 ft MLLW so we
have expanded the Coastal Flood Advisory to include the lower SC
coast and the southeast GA coast.
Additional Coastal Flood Advisories could be needed for
saltwater flooding during the mid-late morning high tide cycles
through late week, even though tidal departures will start to
come down Thursday into Friday as the pressure gradient beings
to relax.
&&
.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EDT today for GAZ117-119-139-
     141.
SC...Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EDT today for SCZ048>051.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ374.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SST
LONG TERM...SST
AVIATION...SST
MARINE...SST

NWS CHS Office Area Forecast Discussion