Sedan, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

368
FXUS63 KICT 192306
AFDICT
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
606 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Chances for showers and storms return tonight into Saturday
  morning, then again Saturday evening/night.
- Seasonable high temperatures in the upper 70s and low 80s over
  the next 7 days.
- Multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms through the
  upcoming week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 156 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Current water vapor imagery and RAP analysis indicate modest
northwest flow aloft on the heels of a weak mid/upper trough
situated over the northern Missouri River Valley. A PV anomaly
currently situated over Nebraska is expected to continue swinging
around this upper axis to the southeast throughout the day. This
feature is progged to provide synoptic-scale forcing for showers and
thunderstorms during the late afternoon and early evening hours
today across southern Nebraska and northwest Kansas. As these track
southeastward later this evening, strong 850-mb WAA arising from the
LLJ will promote increasing coverage over central and south central
KS heading into Saturday morning. Short-term models continue to
suggest modest elevated instability (500-1000 J/kg) and decent shear
(30-40 kts), which may allow for the potential for strong to
marginally-severe thunderstorms during this time period. Large
hail and locally heavy rainfall appear to be the primary threats
at this time.
After a brief break from rain Saturday afternoon, another shortwave
is progged to eject out of the Rockies. The latest guidance suggests
this feature alongside returning low-level WAA in central KS will
allow for additional chances for showers and storms beginning
Saturday night and lasting into Sunday. Lack of deep-layer shear
should largely preclude chances for severe storms, though mid-level
lapse rates may support locally-heavy rainfall and perhaps small
hail. High temperatures through the weekend are expected to
only reach the upper 70s and low 80s thanks to cloud coverage
limiting surface insolation.
The wet pattern is expected to continue through the upcoming work
week thanks to little change in upper flow and multiple
perturbations returning to the region. Afternoon high temperatures
in the 70s and low 80s are forecast to continue through Friday, with
overnight low temperatures in the 50s and 60s.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 605 PM CDT Fri Sep 19 2025
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are moving south through central
KS early this evening. Tried to time out impacts to SLN with a TEMPO
group to account for this, with PROB30s at HUT and GBD due to
uncertainty how far south activity will make it. The strongest
storms will be capable of gusty winds, hail up to quarter size,
and heavy rain reducing visibilities to MVFR. Rain chances
should end from north to south heading through the early morning
hours and give way to widespread VFR.
&&
.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...JWK
AVIATION...JWK

NWS ICT Office Area Forecast Discussion