Seminole Heights, Florida Weather Forecast Discussion

854
FXUS62 KTBW 271128
AFDTBW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
728 AM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
...New AVIATION...
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 725 AM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
VFR conditions and light winds less than 10 knots prevail at all
terminals through the period. There`s a chance of showers and
storms through the day, so will hold VCSH and VCTS at all
terminals through around 23Z.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1204 AM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
A weak frontal boundary across north central Florida is slowly
sinking south with a band of cloudiness and scattered showers,
mainly over the coastal waters attm. Daytime heating will generate
additional showers and isolated thunderstorms over west central
and southwest Florida this afternoon, with the highest pops across
the nature coast and I-4 corridor in region of best available
deep layer moisture along and just south of the frontal boundary.
Locally heavy rain will be possible.
The frontal boundary will dissipate over the region tonight. The
U/L pattern will become more complex Sunday and Monday as a weak
rex block develops over the the eastern U.S.  PTC 9 is currently
about 145 south of the central Bahamas, and is expected to
gradually strengthen Saturday night and track north northwest
across the central and northwest Bahamas this weekend, basically
paralleling the east coast of Florida into early next week.
Although satellite imagery may begin to look a bit unnerving
during this time period, the system is expected to remain well
east of the forecast area, with the main impact breezy conditions
and scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms Sunday through
Monday, with the best chance for rain over the interior.
As the tropical system passes offshore the northeast Florida
coast early next week, winds across the forecast area will shift
to the north/northwest with much drier being pulled down the
backside of the system across region...which will significantly
reduce pops. The main threat for rain mid week looks to be from a
few low top showers that are able to develop over the eastern Gulf
which will move locally onshore.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1204 AM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025
A frontal boundary over the northern waters will sink slowly
south today and will dissipate over the central waters tonight.
Scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are
expected today and tonight. Winds will begin to increase late
Sunday and will continue a bit elevated through mid week as PTC 9
tracks parallel to the east coast of Florida offshore. Winds may
run near advisory levels at times over portions of the near shore
northern and central waters Monday through Wednesday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  89  76  91  76 /  60  20  40  10
FMY  92  76  91  74 /  40  20  50  10
GIF  92  74  91  74 /  60  30  50  10
SRQ  89  75  91  74 /  50  20  40  10
BKV  88  70  91  70 /  60  10  40  10
SPG  86  76  89  76 /  60  20  30  10
&&
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 4
Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 2
For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to:
     https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology
&&
.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&
$$
AVIATION...Wynn
DECISION SUPPORT/UPPER AIR...Carlisle

NWS TBW Office Area Forecast Discussion