Sewanee, Tennessee Weather Forecast Discussion

381
FXUS64 KHUN 170448
AFDHUN
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1148 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
...New AVIATION...
.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of tonight and Wednesday)
Issued at 1014 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
Shower and thunderstorm activity that was active across KY/TN in
the late afternoon has pretty much dissipated as we go into the
evening, thanks to a loss of daytime heating. The infrared and
water vapor view indicated more upper level support across the
Ohio River Valley heading southward. This was rotating around an
upper low over SE Virginia. Model output regarding a potential of
whether more convection will occur was varied, with the HRRR
showing little to nothing, the RAP a bit more coverage, and the
NAM/GFS the most far as overnight convection. Given the downward
trend, will stay with a drier forecast for the late night at this
time. Low temperatures should cool into the low/mid 60s.
An upper level blocking pattern in place across the North American
domain should begin to break down as we go into the latter half of
the week. It`s eastern low over eastern VA should move more to the
north across the Delmarva, while the upper ridge to our west
weakens some. Another very warm to hot mid September day is
expected, with highs rising into the mid 80s east to lower 90s
west. A big question is will it rain? Given dewpoints in the
low/mid 60s and daytime heating should produce surface based
CAPES into 500-1200 J/kg could support an isolated shower and/or
storm in the afternoon. Will add that in an update shortly.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Wednesday night through Friday)
Issued at 1014 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
The above noted upper block should break down as we close out the
work week. The upper low over the east coast will be absorbed into
a trough moving across eastern Canada, while the upper ridge just
to our west flattens.
But similar to today, shower activity should wind down as we go
into Wed night. Mild conditions are expected again with lows in
the low/mid 60s. Under mostly sunny skies, another very warm to
hot day is forecast with highs Thursday afternoon rising into the
mid 80s to lower 90s. It should be a tad warmer Friday with highs
from the upper 80s to mid 90s. Lows temperatures will range in the
60s. Dry weather is expected into Friday.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 1014 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
As we go into the weekend, another trough is forecast to form over
the northern plains. Strong moisture convergence along a frontal
boundary well to our north and west will keep the majority of
shower activity out of our area. But a few instances of lower end
shower/thunderstorm chances remains possible as we go onto the
weekend and early next week. Despite troughing, daily high
temperatures for the Saturday through Monday time will range from
the mid/upper 80s to the lower 90s. Low temperatures will cool
into the 60s. A bit cooler on Tuesday with highs in the 80s. In
the astronomical area, the first day of Autumn 2025 begins Monday
afternoon around 119 PM CDT.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025
VFR flight weather conditions are forecast with ceilings remaining
at or above 080agl through 16Z. An upper level disturbance dropping
south through the region this morning and will produce isolated
SHRA or TSRA. A very low chance (20% or less) continues into
Wednesday afternoon. Will leave out of both KMSL and KHSV given
the low probability, but will amend as necessary based on near
term trends.
&&
.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&
$$
NEAR TERM...RSB
SHORT TERM....RSB
LONG TERM....RSB
AVIATION...17

NWS HUN Office Area Forecast Discussion