Shady Shores, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

791
FXUS64 KFWD 021840
AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
140 PM CDT Thu Oct 2 2025
...New Short Term, Long Term, Aviation...
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Quiet but warm weather continues into early next week. Rain
  chances remain 10% or less.
- A weak cold front may approach our region by mid next week which
  could bring at least low rain chances (20%) to our region.
&&
.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Friday night/
Another unseasonably warm day is taking shape across the region
as highs climb into the low to mid 90s with light east-southeast
winds. Mid level ridging remains in control keeping the dry
weather and mostly clear skies (outside of our typical daytime
cumulus). Quiet conditions will continue overnight with lows
mainly in the mid to upper 60s.
Friday will be much like today, with well above normal
temperatures (5 to 10 degrees) and mostly dry conditions. A weak
upper level disturbance will settle over the northern Gulf on
Friday which will allow moisture to steadily increase and spread
across portions of our region. While the greatest moisture will
remain east and south of our area, we can`t rule out a few
daytime heating driven showers to develop Friday afternoon across
our far southern zones in Central TX. PoPs were limited to 10% as
we will still be influenced by the mid level ridge to our west.
Sanchez
&&
.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Weekend and Next Week/
Quiet and warm weather conditions will persist this weekend as
the center of the mid/upper level ridge remains over northern
Mexico and a developing trough near the Rockies ejects towards
the central/northern Plains. Temperatures will remain in the
upper 80s to lower 90s with east-southeast winds around 10 mph or
less. At this time, we`re keeping our forecast dry (with rain
chances less than 10%) through Tuesday as the disturbance near
the northern Gulf stays well to our east to make any impact
across our region. Beyond this, extended guidance keep hinting a
weak front moving across the southern Plains by mid-week. This
could bring at least some rain chances to our region, but given
the uncertainties in the timing and the progression of the upper
level system, chances are still fairly low (20% or less).
Unfortunately, the potential for widespread rain and significant
cooler weather is very low at this time, so temperatures will
remain above seasonal through the next 7-10 days.
Sanchez
&&
.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/
Quiet weather will continue through tomorrow with VFR and east-
southeast winds around 5-10 kts. Outside of the usual daytime
cumulus a few passing mid-level clouds, no other aviation impacts
are expected.
Sanchez
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    92  69  91  68  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                92  67  90  66  89 /   0   0   5   0   0
Paris               89  66  89  61  86 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              92  64  90  63  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            92  66  90  63  88 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              92  70  91  68  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             91  65  90  62  88 /   0   0   5   0   0
Corsicana           92  69  91  66  89 /   0   0   5   0   0
Temple              93  65  90  63  89 /   0   0  10   0   0
Mineral Wells       93  64  92  63  89 /   0   0   0   0   0
&&
.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$

NWS FWD Office Area Forecast Discussion