Shandon, California Weather Forecast Discussion

873
FXUS66 KLOX 291206
AFDLOX
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
506 AM PDT Mon Sep 29 2025
.SYNOPSIS...29/227 AM.
Cooler than normal conditions will persist through the week, but
temperatures should rise a little each day starting on Wednesday.
Night through morning low clouds with patchy drizzle will be
possible across the coast and valleys through Tuesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM (TDY-WED)...29/227 AM.
A weak front will move through the region through Tuesday.
GOES satellite lightning mapper is detecting a lot of lightning
500 miles west Central California associated with the back edge of
the front. Every model keeps any direct rain and thunderstorm
action well north of San Luis Obispo County, but that is a very
active area which is not that far away - will be keeping an eye on
it. With ample low clouds on the Central Coast however, this front
could rapidly lift the marine layer enough to enhance any drizzle
or produce a bonafide light shower or two this morning or Tuesday
morning. Otherwise, any affects from these fronts will be
minimal.
The airmass will warm a bit on Wednesday after the front moves
through, and some breezy northwest flow will form over the
Sundowner and I-5 Corridor areas. This should help reset the
marine layer to a more normal depth and coverage pattern -
allowing a touch of warming with temperatures getting closer to
normal.
.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...29/227 AM.
Another front will move down the West Coast Wednesday through
Thursday, but again most every model fizzles it out by the time
it reaches San Luis Obispo County. About 10-20% of them show some
rain on the Central Coast Thursday morning. If it does rain it
will be light with minimal impacts.
The low that is currently spinning off the Aleutian Islands, is
expected to move little through Wednesday, then quickly get shoved
towards the southeast and into Nevada by Friday. There is a range
of placements of where that low will be on Friday, varying from
west to east by about 100 miles. A more west track (smallest
chance) could result in a few isolated showers over the area. A
more east track (higher chance) would result in some gusty west
to northwest winds on Friday, including the ocean and coastal
areas.
Fairly benign conditions to follow over the weekend. Another low
will be in the neighborhood early next week, with a lot of signals
pointing to an inside slider track. As should be expected, there
is a lot of uncertainty in terms of timing, track, and impacts -
from high winds, showers and thunderstorms, or gusty north winds
with moderate fire weather concerns. Stay tuned.
&&
.AVIATION...29/1205Z.
At 0724Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 2800 feet deep with a very
weak inversion up to 4100 with a maximum temperature of 18 C.
High confidence in VFR with typical southwest winds at KPMD and KWJF.
Moderate confidence in TAFs for KPRB KSMX and KSBP, clearing this
morning may be off by +/- 3 hours. There is a 30% chance of
little to no clearing at KSMX and KSBP through the period.
Low confidence at all other sites, as there is a 30-50% chance of
a couple of hours of MVFR or VFR cigs between 14Z-18Z Mon. Tonight
low confidence in timing for cig arrival, however higher
confidence in mostly MVFR cigs.
KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF, there is a 50 percent chance
that no cigs form this morning. If cigs do form, they will likely
be between OVC015-OVC35. High confidence in no significant east
wind component.
KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF, there is a 20% chance of
BKN015-BKN025 ceilings from 14Z-17Z Mon.
&&
.MARINE...29/300 AM.
Through Wednesday night, conditions are expected to remain below
Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level, except for a 30% chance of SCA
winds Tuesday and Wednesay afternoon/evening from Point Conception
south to the Channel Islands, including the western portion of
the Santa Barbara Channel. Thursday and Friday, SCA winds are
likely (60-80 percent chance) for the Outer Waters and possible
(50 percent chance) for the inner waters north of Point Sal and
across the western Santa Barbara Channel during the
afternoons/evenings.
Through Wednesday, a southerly swell of 3 to 6 feet will impact
the coastal waters and may produce issues for exposed south facing
harbors. Starting Wednesay night, seas will build to 7 to 11 feet
across the outer waters and nearshore waters north of Point Sal,
and 5 to 8 feet across the inners waters south of Point
Conception.
&&
.BEACHES...29/305 AM.
A moderately-long period southerly swell will last into
Wednesday, generated by Hurricane Narda. Hazardous rip currents
and elevated surf are expected to continue for south- facing
beaches, especially across Los Angeles and Ventura Counties, as
well as Avila Beach and Port San Luis for the Central Coasts.
Additionally, particularly vulnerable south- facing beaches may
see shallow coastal flooding over normally dry beach areas.
Based on yesterday`s surf observations, a High Surf Advisory has
been issued through Wednesday for the Malibu Coast, with surf of 5
to 8 feet again expected. A Beach Hazards Statement is still
effect through Wednesday for all other south- facing beaches
along the Central Coast (4-7 feet, local sets to 8 feet), Ventura
and Los Angeles Counties (3-6 feet).
&&
.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Wednesday afternoon
      for zones 87-340-346-354-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect until 6 PM PDT Wednesday for
      zone 362. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...NONE.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Kittell
AVIATION...Schoenfeld
MARINE...Schoenfeld
BEACHES...Sirard/Schoenfeld
SYNOPSIS...RK
weather.gov/losangeles
Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS LOX Office Area Forecast Discussion