Sheelite, Nevada Weather Forecast Discussion

480
FXUS65 KREV 220827
AFDREV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
127 AM PDT Mon Sep 22 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
* Near to slightly above average temperatures are expected
  through much of the upcoming week.
* Another weather system may bring showers and thunderstorm
  chances again by mid-late week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
* High pressure will shift over northern CA through Tuesday as a
  cut-off low pressure moves into southern CA. Increasing
  atmospheric heights will allow for a warming and drying trend
  across western NV, northeast CA and the eastern Sierra.
  Temperatures will be around 2-5 degrees above normal for the
  first few days of astronomical fall, which arrives today at
  11:19 AM.
* By Wednesday into Thursday, models and their respective
  ensembles are showing that the aforementioned cut-off low
  pressure will move into central CA as the high pressure shifts
  into the northern Rockies. Deep moisture (PWATs > 99th
  percentile) will be pulled northward around the low into the
  region. How far north precipitation will go is still uncertain
  given how cut-off lows are hard for models to resolve all
  details the further out in time. Also, very high PWATs can also
  translate into mostly cloudy skies with lesser chances for
  storms. For now, blended guidance keeps the best chances
  (30-40%) in the eastern Sierra from the Tahoe Basin southward,
  as well as into western NV south of I-80. Lower confidence and
  precipitation chances (15-25%) will be in the remainder of the
  forecast area. By Thursday into Friday, ensembles show the low
  moving back south into AZ, with precipitation chances falling
  off to less than 15% in Mono and Mineral counties.
* By the end of the week, ensembles are showing a long-wave ridge
  over the eastern 2/3rds of the country with long-wave troughing
  off the west coast. We`re on the western edge of the high,
  keeping us with dry onshore flow with near seasonal temperatures.
-McKellar
&&
.AVIATION...
* Main terminals through Tuesday: VFR conditions with mainly light
  winds (gusts below 20 kt) prevail. Only exception is patchy fog
  around KTRK between 10-16Z Monday morning with periods of MVFR
  to LIFR conditions. -McKellar
&&
.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$

NWS REV Office Area Forecast Discussion