Sheridan Lake, Colorado Weather Forecast Discussion

000
FXUS65 KPUB 130539
AFDPUB
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
1139 PM MDT Fri Sep 12 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Scattered strong storms continuing this evening, especially
  over the mountains.
- Better chance of strong storms over the
  Plains tomorrow afternoon, with some flash flooding possible.
- Scattered frost possible San Luis Valley tomorrow night and
  Sunday night.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 220 PM MDT Fri Sep 12 2025
Currently...
Early this afternoon scattered showers and thunderstorms were note
along the divide, with strong to severe storms noted along the CO/UT
border. All of this activity was moving northeast within the flow
regime of a rather impressive trough which was located over the
western CONUS and was progressing slowly east.
Rest of this afternoon...
Main concern will be the potential for strong storms and localized
heavy rain along the CONTDVD and the San Luis Valley and the Upper
Arkansas River Valley. Shear is quite strong and some cape is noted,
and storms so far have looked fairly impressive. This area will have
to be monitored for severe potential. Flash flooding looks less of a
threat as storms are moving rather quickly, but if storm begin to
train or get anchored over the higher terrain, the the flash
flooding risk will increase.
As for areas farther east, the threat of strong storm activity is
much less this afternoon as shear is weak and CAPE is also low.
Nonetheless, showers and storms will be possible along the S mtns
and the greater I-25 corridor region, especially later this
afternoon and into the evening.
For tonight, with the trough continuing to progress over the area,
the chances of showers and isolated storms will continue over the
higher terrain, although coverage will decrease.
For tomorrow, A marginal risk for severe storms will is expected
mainly over the plains as temps aloft will cool off as the trough
moves overhead and there will be some flow over the plains. Deep
shear will not be an issue tomorrow although the hodographs dont
look overly impressive. Additionally, CAPE is noted, but values area
generally generally around 1000 Joules. With the trough axis still
over western CO (and it becoming somewhat negatively tilted with
time), strong synoptic ascent will be over the our fcst area during
prime heating. Additionally, with plenty of moisture lingering
region-wide, a marginal risk of flash flooding will continue over
entire forecast area.
As for temps tomorrow, it will be noticeably cooler, with temps
running about ~8 degrees cooler on the plains as compared to todays
max temps, while mtn/valley temps will be 2 to 6F cooler. Precip
over the mtns will likely be less in coverage tomorrow as compared
to today.
Tomorrow night we may see some frost in the San Luis Valley.
/Hodanish
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 539 PM MDT Fri Sep 12 2025
Issued at 300 AM MDT Fri Sep 12 2025
Sunday and Monday..
Our flow aloft transitions from northwesterly Sunday morning to
due westerly/zonal by Sunday evening, and southwesterly by
Monday as our next low forms up over the northern Rockies. Near
normal temperatures and dry conditions are expected for Sunday,
with only very isolated convection expected over the Pikes Peak
region and area generally north of Highway 50. Our temperatures
warm a few degrees on Monday, with highs climbing just a few
degrees warmer than normal. Monday looks to be the driest day of
the period, with little to no chances for showers and
thunderstorms at any location across the region. Though we will
be warmer and drier, winds will be too weak to warrant any fire
weather concerns, and rh values look to remain above critical
levels as well.
Tuesday Onwards..
There is still some measure of disagreement in regards to the
northern Rockies Low that models bring in around mid-week. EPS
ensemble members are slightly more amplified and GFS ensemble
members are slightly more progressive. Either way, it seems that the
system will mainly pass to our north, and this will occur somewhere
around the late Tuesday into early Wednesday timeframe. This will
allow for renewed shower and thunderstorm chances for at least
Tuesday through Thursday, along with a bit of a cool down for
Wednesday and Thursday as well. After this system`s passage, models
hint at ridging building in from Friday into next weekend.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1139 PM MDT Fri Sep 12 2025
VFR cigs and scattered showers will persist into early Sunday morning,
and will carry a vcsh mention at KCOS/KPUB until around 08z before
showers dissipate. At KALS, vcsh the entire night and through 18z
Sunday, as waves of weak energy rotate northward through the region.
Another round of convection will develop Sunday over the mountains
as early as 15z-18z, with prob30 for -tsra at KALS after 18z, then
starting at KCOS and KPUB after 19z. Gusts to 35 plus kts the main
storm threats, perhaps some brief heavier rainfall and lower cigs/vis
at KALS, where moisture and lift will be slightly better. Will end
storm chances at 00z as drier air moves into the region, though
a few CAMs show some activity lingering along and north of the
Palmer Divide until 03z-05z as main upper low lifts northward.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...HODANISH/MW
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...PETERSEN

NWS PUB Office Area Forecast Discussion