Shields, Kansas Weather Forecast Discussion

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FXUS63 KDDC 061902
AFDDDC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
202 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Rain and isolated thunderstorm chances (40-60%) return
  tonight.
- Unseasonably cool temperatures expected Tuesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Mon Oct 6 2025
WV imagery indicates an elongated upper level trough, extending from
the Northern Plains southwest into the Great Basin, pushing slowly
eastward. Near the surface, a stalled frontal boundary extends
northeast from the Texas Panhandle up into eastern Kansas while a
broad area of high pressure is sliding southeast through the Dakotas.
Rain chances (40-60%) pick back up later this evening/overnight as
the SREF indicates the upper level trough transitioning eastward
through the Central Plains, pushing the previously mentioned stalled
boundary southward into Oklahoma. Areas of light/moderate rain are
forecast to develop later this evening in an axis of post-frontal H7
frontogenetic banding setting up across much of southwest/central
Kansas in wake of the departing frontal boundary. A few rumbles
of thunder cannot be ruled out with the RAP13 suggesting minimal
instability returning overnight with MUCAPE values pushing upward
of 500 J/kg. The best chance for additional rain will be across
south central Kansas into portions of southwest Kansas where the
HREF indicates a 50-70% probability for 6-hr QPF exceeding 0.25
of an inch by daybreak Tuesday morning. Precip chances then taper
off through the day Tuesday as the upper level shortwave moves off
to the east across the Upper Midwest. Minimal rain chances (

NWS DDC Office Area Forecast Discussion