Simonton, Texas Weather Forecast Discussion

677
FXUS64 KHGX 102351
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
651 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
- Gradual increasing trend in temperatures and humidity through
  the end of the work week.
- High temperatures mainly in the mid 90s after midweek through
  the weekend with some upper 90s possible up north.
- Isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible near the
  coast Wednesday night into Thursday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
Notice: Your free trial of fall-ish weather has expired and you have
been reverted back to your regular summer subscription.
Well...it was fun while it lasted, but the heat and humidity are on
its way back as mid to upper level ridging builds in from the west.
That means we`ll see temperatures begin to top out mainly in the mid
90s towards the end of the work week and heading into the weekend.
High temperatures peaking in the upper 90s will be possible up north
in the Brazos Valley/the Piney Woods through the weekend as well.
Overnight temperatures will have an upward trend as well with lows
tonight being as much as ~10F warmer compared to Tuesday night as
we`ll range from the upper 60s to mid 70s. Those along the coast
will be right around the 80F mark...and expect that to hold true
into next week. Easterly winds today will make a run at becoming
gradually more southeasterly going into the evening, but this will
be more prevalent on Thursday which ties into the next paragraph on
rain chances!
The vast majority of showers and storms through early next week will
be offshore, but there will be a few times we could see some
isolated to scattered convection make its way inland along the
coast. One of those occurrences just happens to be on Thursday. To
set the stage, we`ll have increasing PW values to around 1.6-1.8"
(75th percentile: ~1.88"). Combine that with embedded shortwaves in
the flow aloft and the seabreeze, and we have potential for some
inland showers/storms mainly around Matagorda Bay. Showers could
begin moving inland as early as the morning hours on Thursday.
Sporadic inland rain chances continue late in the weekend into early
next week as other embedded disturbances along with a nocturnally
strengthening LLJ  right along the coast (could reach ~25 kt by late
afternoon hours) continue to provide sources of lift for the
elevated low-level moisture. Areas north of I-10 have slim to no
chances of rain though throughout the forecast period.
Another Bonus Space Nugget: If you missed out on Tuesday evening`s
flyover of the International Space Station, no need to fret! There
will be another flyover on Thursday evening beginning at 7:52pm CDT.
It will appear from the west-southwestern horizon, be visible for 6
minutes, and disappear in the north-northeastern horizon with a
maximum height of 42. There is also a flyover Wednesday evening
around 8:42pm CDT, but you`d need a good sightline of
western/northern horizon as this flyover only has a maximum height
of 22. Although humidity is gradually on the rise, conditions will
still be at least somewhat pleasant to spend a few minutes outdoors
gazing up at the sky.
Batiste
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 633 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
VFR conditions prevailing through the period. Calm winds expected
overnight with minimal cloud cover. Earlier mention of VSBY
potential still too low to warrant mention in TAF`s. Similar
conditions expected for tomorrow with light variable winds in the
morning becoming E/SE in the afternoon around 5-10 kts. May see an
increase in high clouds during the afternoon hours as moisture
begins to return to the area.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1216 PM CDT Wed Sep 10 2025
Light to occasionally moderate northeasterly to easterly winds will
prevail through the end of the work week before predominantly
onshore flow returns over the weekend. Wind speeds could approach 15
kt with gusts near 20 kt at times, which may necessitate small craft
to exercise caution as early as Thursday. The easterly fetch
stretches across most of the Gulf, so we`ll be monitoring water
levels as they look to peak in 3.0-3.4 ft above MLLW during times of
high tide. Seas generally remain between 2 to 4 feet going into next
week. Chances for isolated to scattered showers and storms offshore
persists with the best chances being on Wednesday night into
Thursday and also over the weekend into early next week.
Batiste
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  69  94  69  95 /   0   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)  74  94  73  94 /   0  10   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  81  89  81  90 /  10  20   0   0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Batiste
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...Batiste

NWS HGX Office Area Forecast Discussion