Sipsey, Alabama Weather Forecast Discussion

863
FXUS64 KBMX 121815
AFDBMX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
115 PM CDT Fri Sep 12 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 105 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
In the short term, Alabama remains in the northern upper flow
regime, caught between a trough right along the east coast and a
ridge that extends from the ArkLaTex up to the northern MS valley.
The Gulf remains essentially cut off, and conditions are forecast
to remain dry (POPs 5% or less) through the period.
/61/
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 105 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
Not much change to the upper flow regime is indicated in at least
the first half of the long term period (roughly through next
Tuesday). Around that time, operational runs of the primary global
models do start to significantly diverge on evolution of the upper
air pattern. ECMWF in particular shows an upper level low
developing in the southeast states and bringing some moisture into
our area from the east. Will keep the forecast dry for now, which
is supported by ensemble based model blends. But wouldn`t be
surprised if we end up including some POPs in the forecast for at
least a part of our area toward the middle or end of next week.
/61/
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1244 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2025
VFR conditions are forecast to continue across central Alabama TAF
sites through the next 24 hours.
/61/
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Expansive ridging will continue to promote a hot and dry weather
pattern through our 7 day forecast period. Min RHs will drop into
the 30% range for most of the area again this afternoon and this
trend will persist into next week. The center of the high pressure
will build overhead over the weekend, leading to slightly higher
daytime highs. This will result in MinRHs dropping into the 30-35%
range for many locations on Saturday and Sunday. Although values
are currently forecast to remain above critical thresholds, drying
soils will likely lead to expanding drought conditions. Winds
should remain generally light with occasional gusts due to daytime
mixing.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     61  88  60  90 /   0   0   0   0
Anniston    62  87  61  89 /   0   0   0   0
Birmingham  66  91  64  91 /   0   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  66  92  64  93 /   0   0   0   0
Calera      64  91  64  91 /   0   0   0   0
Auburn      64  87  63  88 /   0   0   0   0
Montgomery  64  89  62  91 /   0   0   0   0
Troy        64  87  62  88 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM.../61/
LONG TERM..../61/
AVIATION.../61/

NWS BMX Office Area Forecast Discussion