Soapstone Mountain, North Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

156
FXUS62 KRAH 232318
AFDRAH
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
718 PM EDT Tue Sep 23 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A surface trough in the lee of the central and southern Appalachians
will linger over the area, while high pressure extends from near
Bermuda to the South Atlantic coast through mid-week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 210 PM Tuesday...
As the upper level shortwave continues to move across the Mid-
Atlantic region this afternoon and evening, another shortwave will
move into the region overnight into Wednesday morning. At the
surface, a stationary boundary off the coast is driving some inland
showers and storms this afternoon. While they are largely expected
to stay out of our area and more near the coast, a few could linger
into the far southeastern portions of the Coastal Plain. Later this
evening as the short wave continues to shift east, and and a surface
trough lingers east of the mountains a few isolated showers/storms
could develop and linger into portions of the far NW Piedmont. Light
southerly to southeasterly flow will continue overnight.
Temperatures will max out this afternoon in the mid 80s NW to upper
80s elsewhere. Dewpoints will rise overnight especially over the
eastern half of the CWA into the upper 60s to low 70s. Temps will be
similar thus low stratus and/or patchy fog development is possible
especially across the southeast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 PM Tuesday...
As the parent upper level low sits over Michigan Wednesday, the
trough axis begins to swing from the Central Plains to the MS valley
with an abundance of moisture transport from the Gulf right into the
Mid-Atlantic. Morning fog/stratus will give way late morning before
cloud coverage increases west to east through the afternoon and
evening hours. The bulk of the precipitation will stay to the NW but
have 20-25 % chance PoPs across the Northern Piedmont late afternoon
into the evening and overnight hours. Wednesday will be rather warm,
outside of portions of the Northern Piedmont areas where precip is
possible, highs will be in the low 90s. Warm southerly flow will
keep overnight lows in the upper  60s to low 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 135 PM Tuesday...
There is a bit of model spread as to where the primary surface low
will be Thursday morning, but it will likely be in the vicinity of
the eastern Great Lakes, with a cold front extending south to the
Gulf Coast along the Mississippi River. In addition, there will be
an upper level low helping to reinforce the surface low. Much of
Thursday should be dry, with a more concentrated area of showers
moving into the region Thursday evening with the cold front. It will
be a slow moving cold front, likely around the US-1 corridor Friday
morning and nearing the North Carolina shoreline Saturday morning.
This will result in a 60-70% chance of showers Thursday night
through Saturday, although rain should not be continuously falling
during this time. The front is likely to linger offshore into early
next week, which would still allow a 20-30% chance of showers to
linger across central North Carolina. There is a disturbance
currently near the Windward and Leeward Islands and some models
bring it in the direction of the southeastern United States early
next week, but there is little confidence in the track or intensity
of the system.
Hazards: The entire forecast area is under a Marginal (level 1 of 5)
risk for severe thunderstorms from the Storm Prediction Center. The
potential instability is highly conditional based on convection
today and tomorrow, with the NAM and the GFS showing anywhere
between 500-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE across the region. In addition, the
wind profile is slightly veering with height. The potential for
strong/severe storms will linger into Friday, although SPC currently
does not show a risk that day. In addition, the entire forecast area
is under a Marginal (level 1 of 4) risk for excessive rainfall
Friday and Saturday. Despite the dry conditions recently, if storm
motion is parallel to the cold front, this could allow for the
training of storms.
Temperatures: Highs on Thursday will be similar to Wednesday, with
the Triad slightly cooler as a result of the incoming rain. By the
weekend, highs will range from the mid 70s to the lower 80s, and
this will remain steady into next week. Lows will be in the 60s,
with some upper 50s possible in the cooler spots Monday night.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 715 PM Tuesday...
24 hour TAF period: VFR conditions should largely prevail through
the TAF period at KINT, KGSO, and KRDU, however a stray shower/storm
remains possible at KINT and maybe KGSO this evening. Fog/low
stratus will be possible again at KFAY and KRWI, with MVFR/IFR vsbys
and possibly some LIFR cigs. However, confidence is still not high
wrt how low the vsbys will get at the terminals. A brief period of
LIFR vsbys is possible around daybreak, mainly at KFAY, but
confidence remains low-medium that they will occur. Scattered
showers/storms are possible again Wed eve/night near KINT/KGSO, but
arrival may be right around the end of the current TAF period, so
will hold off mention in TAF for now.
Outlook: Areas of stratus and fog will be possible again Thu
morning, mainly at and east of RWI and FAY. Probability of
showers/storms occurrence will increase and overspread all of cntl
NC by Thu night-Fri, with associated flight restrictions, then
linger into the upcoming weekend, as a slow-moving trough aloft and
surface cold front slowly traverse our region.
&&
.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...MWS
NEAR TERM...CA
SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...Green
AVIATION...KC/MWS

NWS RAH Office Area Forecast Discussion