604 FXUS64 KMRX 110533 AFDMRXArea Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 133 AM EDT Thu Sep 11 2025
...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION...
.DISCUSSION... Issued at 129 AM EDT Thu Sep 11 2025
Key Messages:
1. Mostly clear and dry conditions continue with high pressure in control.
2. Gradual warming trend into the weekend. This weekend and early next week will have above normal temps.
Discussion:
Currently there are a few very weak, and isolated showers working their way across Middle Tennessee and south Central Kentucky. This looks to be weak remnants from convection across the south/central plains working it`s way into the eastern Tennessee Valley where there`s just enough instability to keep these showers going. Will put in low end PoP and drizzle chances for parts of the valley and Plateau overnight but a sprinkle to 5 minute rain is the most likely outcome from these showers.
Looking forward, the rest of the week and the weekend continues with what we`ve been seeing for the first half of this week. Mostly clear skies, and a gradual warming trend. By Sunday/Monday we could see many places in the central and southern Valley with temperatures eclipsing the 90 degree mark... About 5 or so degrees above normal for this time of year. Good news is that the dewpoints look to remain in the upper 50`s to low 60`s so it won`t feel as muggy as when we were last hitting the 90`s regularly in August when the dew points were closer to 70.
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.AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 129 AM EDT Thu Sep 11 2025
Some light showers are drifting into the region from the northwest of TYS. It`s possible they move near the terminal but aren`t expected to have any impact. The main impact through the early morning will be patchy fog development around TYS and TRI. VFR was maintained for the time being, but reductions can`t be ruled out. Through the day on Thursday, SCT clouds around 5,000 feet are expected again, along with northerly to northeasterly winds.
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.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 87 62 87 60 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 83 58 84 57 / 0 0 0 0 Oak Ridge, TN 83 58 84 57 / 0 0 0 0 Tri Cities Airport, TN 79 51 80 52 / 0 0 0 0
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.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. TN...NONE. VA...NONE. &&
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DISCUSSION... AVIATION...BW
NWS MRX Office Area Forecast Discussion