South Congaree, South Carolina Weather Forecast Discussion

959
FXUS62 KCAE 291731
AFDCAE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
131 PM EDT Mon Sep 29 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers will continue to move through central South
Carolina today and into tomorrow. Confidence remains high that
Imelda`s track will shift east over the next 48 hours, keeping
the region unaffected. Drier and cooler conditions are
anticipated by midweek.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Key message(s):
- Clouds and rain showers are expected today and tonight
The current radar imagery shows isolated showers gradually
moving east to west this morning. With weak overall forcing,
most rainfall will remain light, through a passing shower could
be briefly bring moderate rates near half an inch per hour.
Widespread cloud coverage is expected to continue into the
overnight hours with sufficient low-level moisture available.
With limited sunshine this afternoon, high temperatures will run
below normal, holding the mid to upper-70s.
Overnight low temperatures will trend 5 degrees above average
with elevated dew points and no radiational cooler with
lingering clouds.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Key message(s):
- Possible lingering showers on Tuesday with decreasing
  moisture
- Warmer Wednesday ahead of a front that will move through
  Wednesday night bringing a cooler and drier air mass
Tuesday and Tuesday Night: Imelda is expected to have
strengthened and moved further north but is forecast to turn to
the northeast and move away from the coast, having no impact on
our area. Weak upper troughing across the Mid Atlantic will also
shift down through the Carolinas by Tuesday night and the
deeper moisture will shift east of the forecast area with
diminishing showers across the area by evening. Overall not
expecting much in the way of precipitation but some lingering
showers may persist through the daytime hours with higher PWATs
around . The upper trough axis shifts east of the area overnight
which should end any chances of showers. Persistent cloud cover
and lingering showers should limit daytime heating with below
normal high temperatures ranging from the mid 70s north to
around 80 lower CSRA. Persistent northeasterly winds will offset
the cloud cover and lack of radiational cooling but expect
overnight lows in the lower 60s.
Wednesday and Wednesday Night: Fair and dry conditions expected
on Wednesday as the upper trough axis shifts south of the
forecast area and drier deep northerly flow develops. Upper
ridging will develop across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley
region creating confluent 500mb flow which will drive a strong
high pressure system into New England and will drive a front
through the forecast area Wednesday night. Ahead of the front,
skies should be mostly sunny through the day with warmer
temperatures expected in the lower 80s. Low temperatures
Wednesday night with some cold advection should fall into the
50s ranging from the lower 50s north to upper 50s south.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key message(s):
- Dry and cool conditions expected through the end of the week
- Possible increase in moisture and chances of rain late weekend
- Gradual warm up over the weekend
Fall like weather will descend over the region late this week
as strong high pressure builds down the east coast beneath a
building upper ridge aloft over the Ohio Valley. Ensemble
guidance shows the upper trough that shifts south of our area on
Wednesday retrograding over the Gulf Coast states and becoming
trapped there under the building upper ridge across the upper
Midwest into Ohio Valley as another upper trough moves into the
intermountain west. Ensemble PWATs fall well below normal
(around 50-70% of normal) Thu-Fri which will support a dry cool
air mass over the region with below normal temperatures. Highs
expected in the 70s and lows in the 50s.
There is more uncertainty over the weekend into Monday
regarding how quickly and how much moisture may return with
southeasterly flow above the surface developing by Saturday.
This may introduce some increased chances of isolated or
scattered showers by Sun/Mon but confidence is low at this time.
Temperatures should gradually warm late in the period with
strong upper heights over the region and surface high pressure
shifting offshore allowing for a more southeasterly flow.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High confidence remains that widespread MVFR to IFR ceilings
will persist through the TAF period. Ceilings between 500ft to
1200ft are expected to continue over the next 24 hours, with
isolated to scattered rain showers likely across the region that
might reduce visibility briefly. The probability of fog remains
low with a heavy stratus deck.
Probability of measurable precipitation decreases early Tuesday
morning, between 08Z to 15Z. However, MVFR to IFR conditions
will likely continue into Tuesday afternoon.
High resolution models are trending that VFR conditions increase
Tuesday afternoon, between 17Z to 20Z as tropical moisture
escapes the region under northerly flow.
EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Probability of VFR conditions mid-
week is high with a drier pattern Wednesday and Thursday.
&&
.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.
&&
$$

NWS CAE Office Area Forecast Discussion