Spavinaw, Oklahoma Weather Forecast Discussion

169
FXUS64 KTSA 082256
AFDTSA
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
556 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
- Shower and thunderstorm chances generally along and northwest of
   Interstate 44 tonight into Tuesday.
- Mostly dry and warm weather into next weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 1204 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Mid level trough axis currently extends from central KS into W TX
and is marked by the corridor of moisture and ongoing scattered
convection. This feature makes slow eastward progress through
Tuesday especially with southern extent. Expect isolated to
scattered convection to either persist and/or redevelop in
advance of the wave with precip chances increasing northwest of
the I-44 corridor overnight into early Tuesday. Dry low level
airmass remain in place on periphery of the sfc ridge limiting
eastward advance of the precip. A few high based storms could
briefly be strong but otherwise a low impact precip window.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Monday)
Issued at 1204 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
Wave weakens and loses influence by Tuesday evening as the mid
level ridge axis becomes more aligned through the local region.
The favored corridor of convection will likely focus more west of
the forecast area with very low chances spreading into NE OK.
This pattern remains largely in place into the weekend with
heights rising as upper ridging strengthens through the central
CONUS. Temps will trend upward and above seasonal normals while
dry weather continues.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 556 PM CDT Mon Sep 8 2025
VFR conditions should prevail through the period, with mainly mid
and high clouds. Ongoing convection in southern Kansas should stay
north and west of the terminals, with high enough potential for
decreasing showers near BVO to carry a VCSH. Nearby obs to these
showers and the dry air present suggest a very low chance of
visibility reduction there. Additional storms after 06Z may also
impact BVO with a lesser potential at TUL/RVS but confidence in
on-station impacts is not high enough at this point to mention at
any of those three terminals. Winds should be light overnight,
with increased southerly winds from mid morning tomorrow into the
afternoon. Will carry gusts at TUL only.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   60  84  63  87 /  10  20   0   0
FSM   57  85  62  91 /  10   0   0   0
MLC   57  84  60  89 /   0  10   0   0
BVO   57  83  59  86 /  20  20   0   0
FYV   54  82  58  89 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   53  83  57  89 /  10   0   0   0
MKO   57  83  60  88 /  10   0   0   0
MIO   57  82  59  86 /  20  20   0   0
F10   57  84  60  88 /  10  10   0   0
HHW   55  83  58  87 /   0   0   0   0
&&
.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...22

NWS TSA Office Area Forecast Discussion